This is a tricky one. The red-hot Buffalo Bills (8-1 in their last nine games, with the only loss at Arizona on the Hail Murray) and the equally hot Miami Dolphins (9-2 in their last 11) are jostling for playoff positioning.
A win here and the Bills lock up the No. 2 seed in the AFC. Miami needs a win to make the playoffs. Should it lose, it would need a loss by Baltimore, Cleveland or Indianapolis.
Coach Sean McDermott said the Bills have a plan for how to handle playing time and whether to rest some starters, but he said the specifics will "remain internal." Meanwhile, Brian Flores will start Tua Tagovailoa and will be without “relief pitcher,” Ryan Fitzpatrick, who tested positive for Covid-19.
It's been quite a turnaround season for the Dolphins, who started last year 0-7 under new coach Flores. They are 15-9 and 16-7-1 against the spread since, and the Dolphins are 4-1 against the spread going into games versus foes with a winning record this season. In fact, they are 3-2 straight up and 4-1 against the spread as the road team in games versus opponents with a winning record under Flores.
The biggest hurdle for the Fish is their ragged record in Buffalo, where they’ve dropped seven of their last eight visits, while going 2-6 against the spread. Until more is known closer to game time, we’ll lean to the hungrier underdog and take the points.