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View from Vegas: Trends point to Saints' success on Thanksgiving

View from Vegas: Trends point to Saints' success on Thanksgiving

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Depleted Saints lose third straight for first time since '16

New Orleans Saints' Trevor Siemian walks off the field after a game against the Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday, Nov. 21, 2021, in Philadelphia.

So will it be a Happy Saintsgiving Day?

It will for those who cashed the two early NFL games and are looking to complete the Turkey Day trifecta. For those who failed, this game will likely be treated like a Monday night bailout, and if so, you will need to dig deep to find edges in this contest.

As we know, both teams are struggling and turnovers have done them in over the last three games. The Bills are 1-2 straight up and against the spread while losing the turnover battle 9-6; the Saints are 0-3 straight up and 1-2 against the spread while losing the turnover battle 5-1.

It goes without saying that Bills QB Josh Allen needs to play better. He was 21 for 35 for 209 yards, two touchdowns and the two interceptions in Sunday's home loss to the Colts. Sure, he wasn't helped by his mistake-prone receivers, but he made some terrible decisions and is lucky he wasn't charged with four turnovers. He has five interceptions and four touchdowns in his last three.

On the flip side, the Saints played two close games against the Falcons and Titans, respectively, with Trevor Siemian as the starter. They had a chance to win both, but couldn’t finish. Siemian owns an 88.9 passer rating in his four starts this season, throwing eight touchdowns and two interceptions. He is also 9-5 straight up and 8-5-1 against the spread in his home starts, including 4-0 straight up and against the spread when his team is coming off a loss of more than three points. 

More importantly, the Saints are 5-0 against the spread in this series, as well as 7-0-1 against the spread as home underdogs of less than six points.  

Provided New Orleans shakes the injury bug, look for the Saints to improve to 4-0 straight up and 3-1 against the spread on Thanksgiving.

We seal the deal with the clincher: Sean Payton is 6-2 straight up and 7-1 against the spread with the Saints when coming off three consecutive losses, including 5-0 straight up and against the spread as an underdog. 

Prediction: New Orleans over Bills by 6.
Marc Lawrence previews the NFL from a Vegas perspective. You can follow him online at or @MarcLawrence.

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