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View from Vegas: Bills are blistering, but taking the points is appealing

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Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa looks on before the start of a game against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium on Sunday, Sept. 18, 2022, in Baltimore. (copy)

Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is coming off the best game of his career.

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Here we are in Week Three of the 2022 NFL season and only six teams are undefeated. Meet two of them.

Miami’s Tua Tagvailoa had his NFL coming-out party when he passed for 469 yards while tossing six touchdowns, including four in the fourth quarter, in Sunday's dramatic comeback win at Baltimore. Tagovailoa joined Hall of Famers Bob Griese and Dan Marino as the only Dolphins to throw six TDs in a game. Wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle caught 22 passes for 361 yards and 4 TDs. As a result, Tua is off to a 2-0 start under new head coach Mike McDaniel, while his more celebrated 2020 draft QBs Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert stand 1-3 collectively.

And don’t forget, Miami trailed 7-0 just 15 seconds into the game when Baltimore returned the opening kickoff 103 yards for a score.

We fully understand how hot the Bills are. Heck, they finally punted late in the game Monday night on their 16th drive of the season. They hadn’t punted in three of their previous four games.

Yes, the Bills are a blistering 15-1-1 against the spread during the regular season after hosting a non-division opponent. And we’re fully aware that Miami is only 6-11-1 against the spread at home during September, but it was this stat that stopped us right in our tracks: NFL teams playing on Sunday coming off a Monday night game that was preceded by a Thursday win are just 6-12-1 straight up and against the spread against foes coming off a win in this dizzying different day of the week scenario, including 0-6-1 straight up and against the spread the last seven games when facing .428 or greater opponents.

To which we say, where else will you find data like this? Grab the 5½ points with the Tua-and-0 Dolphins (sorry about that).

Prediction: Bills over Dolphins by 1.

Marc Lawrence previews the NFL from a Vegas perspective. You can follow him online at or @MarcLawrence.

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