Analysis: Bills' vulnerability vs. blitz put sour end on Josh Allen's big season

Josh Allen was remarkable under pressure in the pocket in 2022.

The Buffalo Bills’ quarterback ranked third in the NFL in passing yards under pressure with 1,284, according to Pro Football Focus.

He had 13 touchdown passes and four interceptions when the pass rush forced him to flush out of the pocket or improvise in the pocket. He had a passer rating of 96.7 under pressure, which was the best among all starting quarterbacks in the league.

It’s a big part of why Allen is one of the five finalists for the NFL Most Valuable Player award. Allen ranked fourth in the NFL in passing yards per game (267), second in total touchdowns (42) produced and eighth in passer rating (96.6).

Yet, as the Bills found out in their playoff loss to the Cincinnati Bengals, there was a limit to Allen’s success under pressure.

When blitzed, Allen still produced big numbers, a ton of yards and touchdowns. But he was not an efficient quarterback overall when the defense brought extra rushers.

Allen ranked 24th among starting QBs in “efficiency” against the blitz, using the metric “expected points added,” in data compiled by Kansas City analyst Joseph Hefner. It’s a statistic available from various data companies. Expected points added per dropback calculates how a QB moved his team down the field on a given play every time a defense rushed five or more men or rushed a defensive back.

Obviously, a multitude of factors impact how a quarterback performs against a blitz. How was the pass protection? Did the receivers get open? What was the play call? How good was the coverage?

Allen put the responsibility largely on himself the day after the season ended for the struggles against the Bengals.

“We gotta be able to go out there and execute,” Allen said. “We didn't, whether it was mental error or my mistake, whether it was sliding the protection, the right way or the wrong way or calling the play the right way in the huddle, whatever it is, there's just a lot of things leading up to it that we need to be better at. I take that upon on myself."

“Looking back at film every year, you continue to get better,” Allen said, “but you look at film, it's just like, ‘Why are my eyes starting here on this concept? Why am I looking over here? Why am I throwing this ball?’ Stuff to clean up and again, with repetition, I'm gonna continue to get better and I'm gonna learn a lot from this season and come out and have the hunger for next year.”

As most fans realize from watching the games, Allen was very much a boom-bust quarterback against the blitz.

Overall against pass rushes of five or more men, Allen threw for 1,040 yards, 57.6% completions and a healthy 7.18 yards per play (counting scrambles) in 2022, according to Buffalo News charting. That compared favorably to 2021, when he threw for 866 yards (on five more attempts than 2022), 59% completions and averaged 5.64 yards per play.

Against a heavy blitzing team like Miami, Allen mostly went “boom.” The Bills rolled up 496 yards and Allen passed for 159 yards against blitzes in the loss at Miami early in the season, per News charting. In the wild-card victory against the Dolphins, Allen passed for 149 yards against blitzes and the Bills rolled up 34 points and 432 yards (it would have been 480-plus if Khalil Shakir had not dropped an open deep bomb).

The Bills’ strategy of “block them up and gash them deep” generally worked against Miami.

Yet, the Bengals kept the Bills’ passing game in check, and that’s when the offense’s lack of efficiency against the blitz was exposed. The Bills managed just 3.5 yards a play on 13 plays when the Bengals rushed five or more or a defensive back. The Bengals had a lot more zone pressures, fewer all-out blitzes, than Miami.

“Credit the Bengals,” said former NFL quarterback Jim Kubiak, head of the WNY Quarterback Academy and a Buffalo News online analyst. “They had some great zone blitzes where they’d show him one thing, the line would check and slide to that, and then they’d bring the weak safety and play Cover 3. They were bringing four, the Bills were blocking six and they were getting free runs at Allen. That’s great coaching.”

Allen has had games in which he exploited defenses with underneath throws. He did it in the win at Kansas City in Week 6. He didn’t vs. the Bengals. There’s little doubt it was a combination of factors. The blocking can’t break down when the defense drops and rushes only three. The underneath receiving options besides Stefon Diggs weren’t as productive as other top offensive teams. And there could have been more quick game schemed up for the quarterback.

“Against playoff-level teams, because they’re going to take Diggs away, if you’re not playing a system-kind of a game where you’re willing to take the underneath stuff over and over again, they’re going to keep doing what they’re doing,” Kubiak said. “If you’re not taking the easy stuff, the low-hanging fruit, then he’s waiting in the pocket. And that’s a conundrum, in this case, because Dion Dawkins really struggled in that game against Trey Hendrickson.”

The top offenses in EPA per play against the blitz this season were: 1. San Francisco, 2. Jacksonville, 3. Kansas City, 4. Cincinnati. Buffalo was in a group with: 21. Miami, 22. Philadelphia, 23. Washington, 24. Buffalo, 25. New England.

Allen’s efficiency against the blitz wasn’t much different than last year.

Allen was 18th in EPA vs. the blitz in 2021 (against an easier schedule of defenses).

As Cincinnati’s ranking vs. the blitz shows, Allen does not play with quite as much efficiency as the Bengals’ Joe Burrow. That doesn’t necessarily mean Burrow is better. Cincinnati has better receiving weapons than Buffalo. Allen is more improvisational than Burrow. He plays more off script. Allen is a far better runner than Burrow, and he’s more physical in the pocket than Burrow when eluding pass rushers. Allen will hold the ball in the pocket waiting for receivers to uncover longer than Burrow.

Allen had the ninth lowest sack rate (15.4%) among starters on plays in which he was under pressure. The Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes had the lowest rate (10.2%). Burrow was 25th.

It likely will be part of the Bills’ objective to build a little more efficiency into Allen’s game.

Allen has shown the ability to be surgical with underneath throws. He did it a bunch early in the season against the Rams, Titans, Dolphins and in the big win at Kansas City.

Later in the season, those completions were more elusive.

How often was Allen under pressure? For a mobile quarterback like Allen, it’s hard for statistics to differentiate the quality of pass protection.

Allen and Mahomes both have an uncanny ability to elude pass rushers and extend plays. Their pressure rates were almost identical. Allen was pressured on 34% of his dropbacks, Mahomes 33.4%. Allen’s pressure percentage was 13th most among starting quarterbacks. The rate was exactly the same (34%) as in 2021.