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Sunday NFL Playbook

Andy Reid knows how to win, but can Chiefs beat the Texans?

Only six coaches in National Football League history have won more games than Andy Reid's 207. His .618 winning percentage is better than greats Chuck Noll, Bill Parcells, Mike Shanahan and Tom Landry.

All Reid does is win and coach playoff teams, but the criticism of his work, going back to his years with the Philadelphia Eagles, is that he's never won it all. His teams with the Eagles and now the Kansas City Chiefs are 1-5 in conference championship games. He's 6-4 in divisional playoffs, where the Chiefs teams always seem to fail. Four times, the Chiefs lost divisional games in the AFC between 1997 and 2016. Three of the losses were at home, two under Reid.

Reid and the Chiefs again battle the stigma in Sunday's AFC Divisional playoff against the Houston Texans at Arrowhead Stadium.

In the NFC, the Seattle Seahawks will take on the NFC North champion Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field, which is expected to get about 10 inches of snow between Saturday and Sunday.

The two games will display three of the pro football's best examples of the modern-style quarterback — Patrick Mahomes of the Chiefs versus Deshaun Watson of the Texans and Russell Wilson of the Seahawks versus a slightly more conventional Aaron Rodgers of the Packers.

The over/under line of 51 for the game at Arrowhead promises an offensive show between the athletic and daring Mahomes and Watson. It's the highest number of the four divisional games. Ironically, games involving the Chiefs and Texans have come in under the number more times than over throughout the 2019 season.

A capsule look at Sunday's playoff games:

Texans (11-6) at Chiefs (12-4)

TV: CBS 3:05 p.m.

The line: Chiefs (9 1/2).

Record ATS: Texans 8-8-1; Chiefs 10-6.

Over/under: 51.

Times over/under: Texans 6/11; Chiefs 7/9.

The scoop on the Texans: Watson almost single-handedly brought Houston back from a 16-0 deficit to beat the Bills last week. His big plays certainly inspired Houston to rally from what looked like certain defeat. ... Texans beat Chiefs in Kansas City, 31-24, in Week 6. ... Watson was helped most by WR DeAndre Hopkins, who is the best receiver in the AFC with 104 receptions an 11.2 average and seven touchdowns. Hopkins not only gets open, he also makes tough catches. Kenny Stills is not as productive but is still dangerous. Houston's running game packs enough punch with Carlos Hyde (4.4 yards per carry) and Duke Johnson (4.9). Add Watson and his 413 yards, 5.0 average and seven rushing touchdowns, and you have something. ... The effectiveness of Houston's defense was pooh-poohed because of its 28th ranking, 29th against the pass, but the Bills didn't have a field day last week. It will be a different story against the multifaceted K.C. offense. ... The Texans allowed 33 passing touchdowns, a number exceeded only by the Dolphins, Cardinals and Redskins.

The scoop on the Chiefs: The Chiefs have some unique weapons. The first is Mahomes, who has the ability and the imagination to get out of tight spots. He is a master improviser. No team in the NFL can match the Chiefs' speed with WRs Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins and Mecole Hardman. That creates plenty of room for TE Travis Kelce, who has 97 catches for a healthy 12.7 average and five touchdowns. For all Mahomes' daring, Kansas City quarterbacks were sacked only 25 times this season. Kansas City's running game was good for a pedestrian 98.2 yards a game. The RB duties were split between Damien Williams (498 yards, 111 carries, 4.5 average, 5 TDs) and LeSean McCoy (465, 101, 4.6, 4). Hardman, who may be the faster player in the league, averaged 26.1 yards on kickoff returns and 9.3 yards on punt returns. The kicking game is first rate. Harrison Butker has missed only one of 32 field goal attempts inside 50 yards. Dustin Colquitt of the first family of punting has a 40.3 net average and 21 of his 48 punts have pinned opponents inside the 21.

Outlook: It will be fun watching J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus try to snare Mahomes on the pass rush. Unless they do, the Chiefs' quarterback will find Hill, Hardman or Watkins for deep strikes or Kelce to keep the chains moving. Chiefs have a long record of playoff chokes (2-11 since upsetting Warren Moon and Houston Oilers in 1993), but not this time. Chiefs, 31-21.

Seahawks (12-5) at Packers (13-3)

TV: Fox, 6:40 p.m.

The line: Packers (-4).

Record ATS: Seahawks 9-7-1; Packers 9-7.

Over/under: 47.

Times over/under: Seahawks 9/8; Packers 8/7/1.

The scoop on the Seahawks: Having to play at Lambeau should be no problem despite being 1-9 all-time in Green Bay, including 0-2 in the playoffs. Seattle was 7-1 on the road in the regular season, including 5-0 in the Eastern Time Zone, before last week's wild-card win at Philadelphia. ... With Wilson passing for 4,110 yards and 31 touchdowns, the Seahawks had 300 or more yards total offense in all but two regular-season games. Tyler Lockett led the team with 82 receptions for a 12.9 average and eight touchdowns. The injury-depleted corps of running backs is down to Marshawn Lynch, who came out of retirement to run for 34 yards in one regular-season game and carried six times for 7 yards with one touchdown in the playoff win at Philadelphia, and rookie Travis Homer. On the other hand, Seattle's defense allowed 400 or more yards in eight games for an average of 381.6. That's almost 83 yards a game more than the Bills. The defense had only 28 sacks while Wilson went down 48 times. Last week, the Seahawks had seven sacks, a franchise record, at Philadelphia.

The scoop on the Packers: Green Bay made a smooth transition and returned to playoff status with first-year head coach Matt LaFleur. Rodgers did not have an impressive season statistically, but he was efficient with 26 touchdown passes and only four interceptions. Somehow, his passer rating comes out to only 95.4, nowhere near the neighborhood of six other starting quarterbacks still playing. Rodgers has had to do without leading receiving threat Davante Adams, who missed four mid-season games and still ended up with 83 receptions for 997 yards,  a 12.0 per-catch average, and five TDs. Complementing Rodgers was Aaron Jones, who ran for 1,084 yards, a 4.6 average, and 16 touchdowns, which tied Derrick Henry of the Titans for the league lead. ... Green Bay led the NFC with 17 interceptions, well off New England's league-leading 25. Linebacker Za'Darius Smith, signed as a free agent from the Ravens, led the team with 13.5 sacks.

Outlook: The Packers have some astounding home losses at Lambeau, including a loss by a 15-1 team to the Giants in 2011. Green Bay is 3-1 in home playoff games since. It will come down to which QB can will his team to victory. Both have the ability. Slight edge to Packers, but it comes down to a late field goal. Packers, 30-27.

Last week: Favorites were 2-2; road favorite (Seattle) was 1-0. Only Vikings at Saints was over. The other three games were under.

Last week's results: 1-3 straight up; 3-1 against the spread with Houston winning outright and covering against Bills; and Vikings and Titans covering. Eagles did not win and did not cover.

Season's record: 150-92-1 straight up; 118-121-4 against the spread.

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