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Betting trends and pick for Bills-Cowboys on Thanksgiving

It was plainly evident last Sunday that Jason Garrett is far too conservative a coach for the NFL.

With his Dallas Cowboys trailing 13-6 with just more than six minutes remaining, he opted to kick a field goal on fourth-and-7 from the New England 11-yard line. As a result, after a 3-0 start, the bad Boys are now 6-5 yet remain in first place in the unstable NFC East – for now.

The Cowboys are 0-3 straight up and against the spread in this series when coming off a loss, and a wretched 2-14-1 against the spread as nondivision home favorites against nondivision opponents.

The Bills are 16-5 straight up and 15-5-1 against the spread versus NFC East opponents that are coming off a loss, including 3-0 straight up and against the spread as a dog of more than four points.

Dallas' 31-23 win as a seven-point favorite against Washington on Thanksgiving Day last year snapped a 0-7 against the spread Turkey Day run for the Cowboys. Dallas is 0-4 straight up against winning teams this season, but the Cowboys win but don't cover the seven points.

Prediction: DALLAS over Buffalo by 3.

Marc Lawrence previews the NFL from a Vegas perspective. You can follow him online at Playbook.com or @MarcLawrence.

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