This is an AFC East rematch from a month ago when the Bills beat the Dolphins, 31-21, in Buffalo as 17-point chalk.
It was the only game in which Miami out-statted an opponent this season. It was also the game in which Miami re-inserted Ryan Fitzpatrick as its starting quarterback.
The Fish are swimming in calmer waters these days. And if there is one role in which the bearded wonder has excelled in his NFL career, it’s against teams that are coming off a loss; he is 35-18-5 against the spread in this role. With FitzMagic behind center, the Dolphins have won consecutive games for the first time this season.
The problem, though, is Miami has a 20-44-3 against the spread record at home in games off consecutive wins, including 0-6 ATS as a dog.
Despite last week’s disappointing loss at Cleveland, the Bills still cling to the No. 5 playoff seed despite having been outgained in three of their last four games.
They get the win here, but Miami reels in the cash with the 5½ points.
Prediction: Buffalo over Miami by 3.