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View from Vegas

Betting trends and pick for Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns

Our contention from the start has been that Cleveland head coach Freddie Kitchens is in over his head and the Browns are drowning with him.

Cleveland is 2-6, and the only team since the 1970 merger to make the playoffs after starting the season 2-6 was the 1970 Bengals, who won their final seven games to make the playoffs at 8-6.

Through eight games last season, the Browns were 2-5-1, averaging 21.1 points per game, with a minus-41 point differential. The 2019 Browns are 2-6, averaging 19.0 points per game, with a minus-53 point differential. And if that’s not bad enough, Cleveland is 1-11 straight up and 1-10-1 against the spread at home in Game Nine of the season.

With no sign of help coming anytime soon from the offensive line, QB Baker Mayfield has been sacked 23 times in eight games this season after being sacked 25 times in 14 games last season. Not good for a team that leads the league in penalties (75).

Nevertheless, Cleveland is 0-3 at home and the Bills are 3-0 on the road this season. In addition, the Bills are 9-0 against the spread since 2000 as road dogs against foes coming off consecutive straight-up and against-the-spread losses, with the last loss coming as a favorite.

Our guess is they will be tossing life rafts from the Dawg Pound if Kitchens is still roaming the sideline after Sunday if the Browns falter. Here is the clincher: Cleveland 1-14 straight up and 1-13-1 against the spread at home on Sundays against winning opponents.

Prediction: Buffalo over CLEVELAND by 10.

Marc Lawrence previews the NFL from a Vegas perspective. You can follow him online at Playbook.com or @MarcLawrence.

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