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Betting trends and picks for Bills vs. Washington

We’re at the stage of the NFL season when good teams start to separate themselves from bad teams. Only in this case, the separation has already been made.

If the NFL playoffs were to start this weekend, the Buffalo Bills would be one of the new kids on the block – actually not so new because the Bills made the 2017 postseason – as Buffalo would be the only AFC team that was not in the playoffs last season. On the flip side, the Washington Redskins appear to be competing in the "Tank for Tua" sweepstakes.

The Bills have faced three opponents this season that currently have .500 or better records – New England, Philadelphia and Tennessee – and they’ve averaged 12.3 points per game. Meanwhile, the Bills have averaged 24.3 points per contest against foes with losing records this year.

So while the Redskins look to be more in the Bills' wheelhouse, we’re not buying in. Not with Washington residing inside Marc’s "Awesome Angle of the Week." Sure, the Hogs are 2-10-1 against the spread as nondivision road dogs of 10 or less points off an away game, but we’re not fully sold on Josh Allen. The Bills quarterback couldn’t take advantage of a banged-up Eagles secondary last week, and we’re not comfortable laying the 9 1/2 points with him. Allen is 2-5 against the spread as a favorite as opposed to 8-3 against the spread as a dog.

Prediction: BILLS over Washington by 4 

Marc Lawrence previews the NFL from a Vegas perspective. You can follow him online at Playbook.com or @MarcLawrence.

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