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COMMENTARY

After a cool start to the month, summery weather is coming back

After a cool weekend and start to this week, summer will make a comeback. It won’t be true midsummer heat, but it will be close enough for those who prefer summery weather.

Like this past week, Tuesday will bring a considerable warmup with nearly muggy conditions by evening and overnight. Niagara Frontier daytime highs should approach or exceed 80 on a southerly flow, with dew points rising to the stickier mid and upper 60s Tuesday night. At that point, you may be tempted to flip on the AC. A few showers may fall mostly north of the metro area, and there will be a better chance of a few showers and thunderstorms on a warm and somewhat humid Wednesday.

After Wednesday highs in the low 80s, a little bubble of Pacific air behind a cool front will take us back to the 70s on Thursday. The average high at this time will be 73, so we can’t really call that a cool air mass. By Friday, the cool front comes back at us as a warm front and brings renewed warming into the low 80s:

Following another cool front and some scattered Friday night showers and thunderstorms, we return to the mid-70s on Saturday, probably still a couple of degrees above average. We should still be well into the 70s on Sunday. At MetLife Stadium, gametime temps currently look likely to reach near 80 for the Bills and the Giants, and a rainfree day is indicated.

Summerlike readings will continue into early the following week. The upper air pattern in model ensembles favors warm ridging in the east.

The persistence of the eastern ridge of high pressure may not bring days in the 80s day after day, but it does preclude the chance of sharply cooler air masses from northern Canada being transported into our region. You can actually see why in this upper air ensemble, with a WSW flow aloft bring a Pacific flow across much of the nation. There is no steering wind available to transport a continental polar air mass in our direction.

Going out even further in time, the American GFS ensemble shows a continuation of this Pacific flow into the latter part of the month. Of course, in this time range nothing is a “lock,” and a cool day or two (or three) will probably slip in along the way. Yet this tendency affords some confidence the majority of days over the next two to three weeks will bring above-average temperatures.

This confidence is also reflected in the Climate Prediction Center probabilities for warmer or cooler than average temperatures. First, there is center's 6-10 day temperature probabilities outlook. Next there is the 8-14 day outlook.

The warm trend continues in the experimental weeks three to four outlook, as well.

The Climate Prediction Center points to a drier-than-average tendency during this extended period as well. However, allow me to beat a dead horse by reminding the reader that precipitation outlooks have far greater uncertainty in this extended time frame, so I often don’t place much stock in them. As for the nearer term, seven-day rainfall totals in this next week are moderate, but stretched out over a week, not overly impressive.

As of this writing, it doesn’t appear we’re headed back to muddy yards and a renewed surge of hatched mosquito larvae in the next week. If you have a window AC and you despise muggy conditions, I wouldn’t recommend putting the unit into storage just yet.

Finally, for ragweed-sensitive allergy sufferers, the killing frost you need to snuff the sneezes is not in sight. Gesundheit.

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