It's already been an abnormally soggy month of June, but it's about to get even wetter, according to the National Weather Service.
An approaching storm system and a frontal boundary are expected to combine to generate precipitation across Western New York later on Thursday, forecasters said.
"Heavy rainfall will be possible across the entire area Thursday into Thursday night as a moisture-laden system tracks through the region," the weather service said in its hazardous weather outlook. "Rainfall amounts of one to two inches look possible at this time, which may result in some localized minor flooding."
Precipitation has been abundant this year for our region, especially east of Lake Ontario where only 6 years have had a wetter start. Unfortunately another soaking rainfall will reach our region Wednesday night, and become heavy through the day Thursday and Thursday night. pic.twitter.com/RHaHOWFRmL
— NWS Buffalo (@NWSBUFFALO) June 18, 2019
The weather service pegged the chances for rain Thursday at 100 percent.
As of this morning, the latest forecast models diverged as to the track of the storm system with one appearing to keep the heaviest rain to the south of the region, while others suggesting widespread – and possibly heavy rain – for the Buffalo Niagara region Thursday afternoon into the evening, the weather service said.
"If training convection or a concentrated area of heavy rain along the stalled boundary develops, a few areas may exceed 1.5 inches which would result in an elevated flood risk locally," the weather service said.
Thursday's daily precipitation record in Buffalo is 1.04 inches, set in 1980.
Forecast ensembles show there's a 10 percent chance for at least 1 inch of rain by early Friday in Buffalo with a near 30 percent chance of 1 inch of rain across the Southern Tier.
As of Monday, 3.52 inches of rain has fallen in Buffalo during June. That's 1.35 inches above average. Weather records show this is Buffalo's sixth-wettest June over the last half-century.
Last year, 0.24 inches of rain was recorded between June 1 and June 17.