This is about as natural a call as there is on this week's slate.
From our point of view, it starts with the Buffalo Bills being the best under-the-radar team in the league coming down the stretch. Buffalo is outgaining foes by 82 yards per game during the second half of the season – an improvement of 88 net yards per game on the Bills' overall full season stats.
Compare that to the Miami Dolphins being outgained by 123 yards per game over the second half of the season and you can see where we’re going here. That’s a combined net of 205 yards per game in the Bills' favor.
Meanwhile, the Bills have a 7-1 mark against the spread in games after dressing up as double-digit underdogs when facing sub-.500 division foes. They are also 5-1 against the spread in the last six home games. On the opposite side, the Dolphins are 1-4 straight up and against the spread in last road games, as well as 1-5 against the spread in Buffalo.
Miami is 7-17 straight up and 9-15 against the spread on the road under Adam Gase, including 0-8 straight up and 1-7 against the spread when the Dolphins are coming off a loss.
With temperatures expected below freezing at kickoff, it’s safe to say frozen fish is the order of the day. And that’s confirmed by the clincher: Buffalo is 23-3 against the spread against sub-.500 opponents after facing New England, including 7-0 against the spread versus division foes.
Prediction: This is the five-star best bet for the week. Bills over Miami by 14.