Pro Football Focus senior analyst Billy Moy took a lot at Josh Allen's rookie season through PFF's metrics and found Allen "largely lived up to our scouting report," which credited him for his big-play ability but expressed concerns about his accuracy.
Those concerns were driven home by this note:
"At PFF, one of our advanced metrics of tracking quarterback play is called adjusted completion percentage, which accounts for drops, throwaways, spikes, batted passes and throws where the QB is hit on his release," Moy wrote. "Allen ranks last among qualified QBs with a 62.1 adjusted completion percentage, and when he’s under pressure, his adjusted completion percentage plummets to 45.2 percent (he’s the only QB at less than 57.0 percent in terms of adjusted completion percentage under pressure)."
The whole piece is worth checking out, but those numbers were particularly concerning. One of the biggest comebacks from staunch Allen defenders has been that his receivers have too many drops, which is true, but these numbers show that even when factoring drops out, Allen still struggles to measure up. ESPN's Bill Barnwell mentioned something similar on Thursday, pointing out that Allen's 2018 currently ranks among the 30 lowest seasons ever in adjusted net yards per attempt (though he's not as bad as fellow rookie Josh Rosen).
Allen's season has had some highs, too: He ranks first in average depth of target, and "the rate at which he’s made those big-time throws ... proves that he’s capable of elevating his offense like great QBs do," Moy wrote. So the takeaway shouldn't be that Allen is doomed as a passer – it's that, with a season of evidence, his pre-draft concerns have proven to be legitimate. The numbers show Allen has a high ceiling and a low floor (just like we thought), so a significant burden remains on OC Brian Daboll and the rest of the Bills' coaching staff to get the most out of the quarterback to whom their fates are tied.
Rematch with Dolphins a first for Bills QB Josh Allen: Allen will get to show the world what he can do when facing a defense for the second time when the Bills play the Dolphins in Week 17. Allen missed the first Patriots and Jets games due to injury, so this will be the first "rematch" of his career.
Bettors Guide: Colts-Titans turns out to be meaningful finale: When the Bills beat the Titans in Week 5, 13-12, it was hard to envision the Titans would enter Week 17 at 9-6. But they have the most interesting game of the week, facing the 9-6 Colts in a loser-goes-home finale. All three News pickers took the Colts to cover -3 at Tennessee, which could be without quarterback Marcus Mariota (stinger).
Star Lotulelei continues strong second half, but Trent Murphy's slump continues: Remember when people were excited about Trent Murphy? That feels like such a long time ago. But as mentioned in this article, Murphy's performance has dropped off since his injury, so he could certainly be a candidate for positive regression next season if he comes back at full health.
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Story topics: Josh Allen