Let’s get this ugly stat for dog lovers (that would be us) right out of the way: NFL road favorites of seven or more points coming off a road win that was preceded by three consecutive home wins are 14-1 straight up (SU) and 11-4 against the spread (ATS) since 1980, including 8-0 SUATS in division games. Gulp.
But because we’re handicappers and not New England Patriots lovers, we are forced to start digging deep. Thanks to shovels supplied by our well-oiled machine, we learn that NFL double-digit division home dogs are 13-4 ATS since 2009, including 3-1 ATS on Monday nights.
Then there is the value perception that resides with this game as the line at Cantor Gaming in Vegas had the Pats minus-4.5 before the start of the season. Now, it’s New England minus-14.5. That’s what happens when the always-popular Pats are co-favorites (with the Chiefs) to win the AFC at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas.
With the Brady bunch 1-11 ATS as double-digit chalk when coming off an NFC win, and the Bills 3-1 ATS as double-digit home dogs, we’re reaching for the big clothespin to hold our nose and applying it here.
Prediction: New England over BUFFALO by 8