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Who will get the season's first snow? And, when?

The first snowflakes of the season are forecast to fly across some spots of Western New York tonight into early Thursday, according to the National Weather Service.

Who will get snow? And, how much will there be?

Depending on where you live, it could range from limited flurries floating through the air to enough to craft a wet snowball.

In all cases, this early lake-generated snowfall isn't expected to be significant, thanks mostly to a northwesterly flow limiting fetch on Lake Ontario and Lake Erie.

How 'early' is TOO early for Buffalo's first snowfall?

Precipitation is expected to start as rain but transition to snow as temperatures aloft drop below freezing later this evening, forecasters said.

The best chances will be between Rochester and Syracuse as a lake-effect connection linked to Georgian Bay helps to generate what's expected to be an organized band of lake-effect snow late Wednesday evening, weather service forecasters said. The band is expected to shift farther west overnight into the morning, the weather service said.

Models show the most organized lake-effect snow band is likely to set up from Orleans County through the Finger Lakes. The band is expected to have an upwind connection to Lake Huron's Georgian Bay. (

"Any accumulation will be minimal, with nothing more than a spotty light coating on the grass across the higher terrain and possibly in the more dominant band southeast of Lake Ontario," the weather service said.

Closer to Buffalo, Batavia and Warsaw could see one-tenth of an inch or two of accumulation, and there's a potential for some enhancement from Lake Erie across the higher elevations and the Chautauqua Ridge, forecasts show.

Any of the chances for snow are likely to occur between about 9 p.m. Wednesday and daybreak Thursday.

Forecasts show there's just a slight chance for snow in Buffalo just before dawn Thursday.

There's a slight chance for Buffalo to see its first snow early Thursday. Little or no accumulation is expected. (National Weather Service)

Otherwise, forecasts call for a cool, cloudy and breezy Wednesday in the Buffalo Niagara region.

There's a 40 percent chance for showers. Temperatures are expected to top out in the upper 40s. And, westerly winds could gust over 30 mph, making it feel like its in the upper 30s to low 40s.

Forecasts call for Thursday to stay cool with highs in the mid-40s before they moderate to more normal conditions Friday into the upper 50s with mostly sunny skies.

Although today could bring the first flakes to Western New York for the snow season, it's already off to a quick start in other parts of the country.

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