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[BN] Blitz newsletter: Breaking down Josh Allen's performance in the Bills' upset win

Bills rookie quarterback had decent numbers Sunday in his first career win, completing 15 of 22 passes for 196 yards and a touchdown. But how well did he actually play?

Mark Gaughan's film review gave Allen positive marks but made sure to praise offensive coordinator Brian Daboll as well. Gaughan also noted that the Bills gained 8.1 yards per play in the first half if you don't include the 12-yard loss on the "fumbled" shovel-pass that should've been ruled incomplete. Allen's performance was good for a 4.0 on Gaughan's 1-5 grading scale.

"Credit Daboll with getting his rookie QB in early rhythm," Gaughan wrote. "Allen was 7 of 8 for 44 yards on passes behind the line of scrimmage."

Pro Football Focus gave Allen a 76.0 overall grade and 72.5 for passing. They charted Allen throwing only four passes between the numbers that traveled beyond the line of scrimmage, which you would like to see more of. But Allen completed two of them, and would've had three if Kelvin Benjamin didn't drop one that should've gone for a touchdown.

QB analyst Jim Kubiak was impressed with Josh Allen's game, grading him at 94.5 percent on Kubiak's "Doing your job" scale. He also noted that Daboll "put Allen in good situations with simple reads, screens and concepts where Allen could be decisive."

One other point in that article that deserves elaboration is the claim that "statistically teams that win the turnover ratio win the game 80 percent to 90 percent of the time." There are no statistics that back that claim, at least at the NFL level. Since the 1970 merger, teams with positive turnover ratios have gone 6,989-1,922-46 for a 78.3 win percentage. Restricting the data set to 1990, the win percentage goes up to 78.7, and since division realignment in 2002, it's closer at 79.2, but still not "80 percent to 90 percent." Individual seasons may have beaten the 80-percent clip, such as 1972's 80.1 win percentage, but over no significant period of time has that claim been true.

Tre'Davious White looking more like a true shutdown cornerback: “I told him in the offseason he can be the best corner in this league,” Micah Hyde said. Through three games, White looks the part. Only Richard Sherman, Eli Apple and Joe Haden have allowed fewer receptions per snap in coverage (Haden's stats not including Monday night).



How Vegas made out with Bills' upset of Vikings: What happens when a 16.5-point underdog pulls off the upset? It turned out to not be that big a deal from a Vegas perspective because the big line apparently scared off many bettors. A spokesman for the Westgate SuperBook categorized it as "a good game but not great. The general public usually doesn’t feel comfortable laying all those points and stay away from those games. In addition, it was a lightly bet game."

Position grades: As mentioned above, Allen got a 4 out of 5, but other position groups scored even higher. Mark Gaughan gave both the defensive line and linebackers 4.5 out of 5.

Jay Skurski's Observations: Allen's hurdle was still being talked about Monday – and it even got Daboll to crack a joke: "You guys are out there for practice and individual (drills), right? We spend five minutes on hurdling and then the other five minutes on footwork," he said in jest. "We have (quarterbacks coach) David (Culley) stand out there, and Josh makes the leap." No such luck for Sean McDermott, though. “I think the takeaway for me was it was a critical third down,” McDermott said. “They blitzed, and Josh found a seam and took it. The part I like about it was he was decisive. You don’t always see that with young players. I thought overall, our team was decisive and played fast. Whenever you do that, usually good things happen.” Here's the full transcript.

Why Rob Gronkowski turned down trade to the Lions: He loves him some TB12.

Watch: Vic Carucci and Adam Benigni discussed the significance of the Bills' upset victory.

Monday Night recap: Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for 411 yards, three touchdowns and three picks, becoming the first player in NFL history to throw for 400 yards in three consecutive games, but his Buccaneers lost to the Steelers, 30-27. The Steelers led 23-7 in the second quarter and held on for their first win.


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