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FiveThirtyEight on 27th District: Still looking very red, but stay tuned

The site famous for forecasting political races has updated its model for New York's 27th congressional district following Monday's news that Rep. Chris Collins will stay on the ballot.

And not much changed. now has Collins on the ballot in its forecast, but it still sees a more than 80 percent chance that the seat will stay Republican.

Collins now appears on the site rather than Erie County Comptroller Stefan Mychajliw, who the site had called "the presumed replacement for Chris Collins."

The numbers have remained very much the same, however.

In FiveThirtyEight's first overall congressional breakdown, on Aug. 16, it put the odds that a Republican will win New York's 27th District at 75.49 percent.

About 2½ weeks ago, on Aug. 30, with uncertainty still reigning for who would be on the ballot for Republicans, its forecast increased chances the seat would stay red to 82.3 percent.

Now after updating the site with Collins as the Republican candidate, it says his prospects of winning are at 80.4 percent.

However, Nate Silver, the founder of FiveThirtyEight, which relies a great deal on data, tweeted that the projections will be helped once more data is mined: Namely in the way of polls.

"No polls here though and it's a hard race to forecast," he tweeted. "Check back in a couple weeks once someone has surveyed the race."

These numbers were taken from FiveThirtyEight's "classic" model. Its "deluxe" model, which incorporates experts' ratings, puts the chances of keeping the seat slightly higher at 80.7 percent; its "lite" model puts the chances up at 83.2 percent.

FiveThirtyEight's projected vote share has Collins at 53.7, Democrat Nate McMurray at 42.9 and Reform candidate Larry Piegza at 3.4 percent.

That's also a high in this category to date: The breakdown initially had Mychajliw winning 51.5 percent of the vote, with 45.5 for Nathan McMurray; the margin increased to 52.0-44.4 for Mychajliw on Aug. 30.

FiveThirtyEight sees 27th District an even deeper shade of red

FiveThirtyEight forecasts a 75% chance the 27th District stays red

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