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FiveThirtyEight sees 27th District an even deeper shade of red

Uncertainty remains when it comes to who will be the Republican candidate on the ballot for New York's 27th Congressional District.

But according to the website that has made its name predicting political races, the chances of the seat staying red have actually increased since its initial projection about two weeks ago. Rep. Chris Collins announced on Aug. 11 he would not seek re-election after a federal indictment for insider trading.

FiveThirtyEight has unveiled individual breakdowns of all 435 house races, and its analysis on its New York's 27th puts the chances that the Republican wins the seat at about 5 in 6, or about 82.3 percent.

In FiveThirtyEight's first overall congressional breakdown, on Aug. 16, put the odds that a Republican will win New York's 27th District at 75.49 percent.

These numbers were taken from FiveThirtyEight's "classic" model; its "deluxe" model, which incorporates experts' ratings, puts the chances of keeping the seat even higher at 85.8 percent (6 in 7).

The forecast still has Erie County Comptroller Stefan Mychajliw on the ballot for the Republicans – with an asterisk noting that he is the "presumed replacement for Chris Collins."

Projected vote totals also increased in favor of the Republicans since the first projection. The breakdown initially had Mychajliw winning 51.5 percent of the vote, with 45.5 for Democratic nominee Nathan McMurray; now the margin is 52.0 to 44.4.

In FiveThirtyEight's initial unveiling of the House forecast, site founder Nate Silver wrote that the site was assuming that Collins would be able to withdraw, "but we’ll reinsert him if it looks like he won’t be able to." No additional caveats regarding the race were part of a post published to explain the individual breakdowns.

In the overall classic model, FiveThirtyEight says there is a 72.6 percent chance (5 in 6) that the Democrats win control of the House.

FiveThirtyEight forecasts a 75% chance the 27th District stays red

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