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FiveThirtyEight forecasts a 75% chance the 27th District stays red

Right now it's unclear which Republican will be on the ballot for New York's 27th congressional district in November.

But whoever it is has a great chance to win, according to the website that has made its name predicting political races.

FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver's analytical forecasting site, puts the odds that a Republican will win New York's 27th district at 75.49 percent.

The prediction is part of FiveThirtyEight's forecast for the entire 2018 House of Representatives election. A chart of all the mid-term House races is also available.

The forecast has Erie County Comptroller Stefan I. Mychajliw winning 51.5 percent of the vote, with 45.5 for Democratic nominee Nate McMurray.

So how did FiveThirtyEight go with Mychajliw?

They don't say, but Silver does offer a few explanations behind some of the decisions. At the end of an exhaustive methodology of the 2018 House forecast, Silver's "Odds and Ends" section includes information relative to the unique situation the 27th district finds itself in following the indictment of Republican incumbent Chris Collins on insider trading charges.

Regarding nominees who have yet to be decided, Silver writes:

We’ve made educated guesses about the identity of the nominees in states that haven’t yet held their primaries. We’ll definitely be wrong about a few of these, and we’ll change them once the primaries are held.

And what about Collins' status on the ballot, since it is unknown how exactly his name will be removed?

For the time being, we’re also assuming that incumbent Republican Chris Collins will successfully be able to withdraw from the race in New York’s 27th District, but we’ll reinsert him if it looks like he won’t be able to.

Overall, Silver and FiveThirtyEight are projecting, in its "classic" model, that there is a 74.6 percent chance that the Democrats will win control of the house.

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