Let's get this out of the way first: There's a 98 percent chance no one in upstate New York State will see a tornado today.
On the other hand, the chances of seeing one are better than you'd have watching Buffalo Bills kicker Steven Hauschka miss a field goal from inside 40 yards last season.
Warm temperatures, high dewpoints, a potent trough and an approaching cold front will make the atmosphere ripen here today in a way you won't find in any other part of the country — including over Dorothy and Toto's home in the Great Plains.
That's why the Storm Prediction Center of the National Weather Service has the region under a slight risk for severe thunderstorms.
And why forecasters have colored upstate New York — including broad portions of the Buffalo Niagara region — in a green oval signifying a low-risk area for a twister.
If only for a day, places like Cheektowaga, Rochester and Syracuse will be your best bet for chasing the most severe weather.