Just days after forecasts called for snowfall across parts of Western New York, summerlike heat across the region today could bring enough convection to spark some severe thunderstorms, the National Weather Service reported.
Any severe weather is expected to remain in the Southern Tier, but all of the region can prepare for heavy rain today, forecasters said.
The Buffalo Niagara region sits just south of a stationary front. Warm, moist air south of the front is expected to push daytime high temperatures into the mid-70s across most areas of the region away from the cooler lakes today.
Dewpoints in the 60s will make it summertime sticky, too.
"Concerning severe potential, instability this afternoon is forecast to increase with daytime heating," the weather service said.
Forecast models show the potential for the strongest convection to occur across the Southern Tier.
The weather service's Storm Prediction Center said there's a slight risk for severe storms south and east of metro Buffalo.
"The primary risk with any severe storms this afternoon would be damaging winds," the weather service said.
Heavy rain is expected across Western New York at times today.
As much as three-quarters of an inch of rain is possible near metro Buffalo with more than 1 inch possible in parts of the Southern Tier today and tonight.
More rain remains likely on Friday as well, forecasters said.