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Don Paul: That warmup I talked about? Not so fast!

A major point in my article written Monday is the struggle warm air can have making a northward move in Western New York, even when computer guidance is more optimistic. As recently as early Monday evening, some National Weather Service headquarter ensemble output was still pushing for highs of 60-plus degrees near Buffalo this weekend.

As of midday Tuesday's guidance, the northward progress of the warm front, on a national scale, has dropped "just a smidge" farther south.

For the Niagara Frontier, that "smidge" may well make all the difference in mild versus cold and damp. That is, this southward smidge presents a world of difference in the quality of our weekend weather.

There is still some evidence the warm air will make it as far north as southern Chautauqua County, and places such as Jamestown and Frewsburg might even have a shot at 65 to 70 degrees. But for the metro area and points north, there is growing evidence that temperatures will run below average (the average high is now in the low 50s), and maybe well below average.

Read: in the 40s with some rain and a chilly east-northeast wind.


In fact, the overnight European model is suggesting both days this weekend will be in the 30s on the Niagara Frontier, with the chance for some mixed precipitation on Saturday.

Since it's only Tuesday, I'm not ready to buy into something that extreme just yet, but this is certainly within the realm of possibility. With cold, dense, high pressure to the north in Canada, and cold, dense air over both lakes Ontario and Erie, it can be a tough road to hoe for warm air to move north in early spring in Western New York. Warming is much more easily realized in places such as Pittsburgh and Columbus, Ohio.

Needless to say, I wouldn't completely rule out a return to more northward progress for warmer air south of that front in computer runs during the week. However, I have to give the edge to that cold, dense air to the north over the warm, less dense air fighting its way up from the south.

And with that, I'll be back to wearing a disguise when I hit the supermarket. Does anyone own a Newman mask? Homer Simpson? Asking for a meteorologist I know ...

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