The combination of things work nicely in Buffalo’s favor again this week.
The New England Patriots have a putrid 0-4 against the spread mark as home favorites in games following the Pittsburgh Steelers. Toss in a poor 1-3 ATS mark at home in games following a three-game road trip and that New England has been outgained in each of its last two games and you have the making of a tired team coming down the stretch.
But then again, Buffalo’s task this week will be to survive Foxborough, where New England is 131-31 SU and 91-65-6 ATS all-time under Bill Belichick even if the Patriots are only 6-11 ATS as double-digit home favorite against division foes in these same games.
Furthermore, quarterback Tom Brady is a measly 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS as a home favorite when coming off Pittsburgh, with no wins by more than 10 points.
Yes, Buffalo is 1-10 ATS against foes off a win of 3 points-exact, but by the same token, New England is 0-4 ATS when coming off a win of three points-exact themselves.
The bottom line is returning home after spending five of the last six weeks away, off a stunning late comeback win at Pittsburgh, leaves the Pats highly vulnerable, especially when they are laying the most points they have against the Bills since 2012.
The pick: New England by 6.