With 12 days til Christmas, Mother Nature sends to thee...
Some more chilling cold. A few lake snows, mixing with some rain. And, an Arctic front on Christmas Eve?
Great example of our @WxCoEnergy Clusters in 12-hourly resolution in which models are having a very difficult time in predicting the timing and placement of an arctic cold front for Christmas Eve. GEFS Clusters on Top, ECMWF EPS middle, and GEM Ensembles on bottom. pic.twitter.com/tfle2aVWnq
— Michael Ventrice (@MJVentrice) December 13, 2017
Weather service forecasters won't be pinned down on a Christmas Day forecast specifics just yet, but speculation abounds on social media.
Weather experts vying to nail down a holiday forecast seem to agree signs may be shaping up for a cold, white — possibly snowy — Christmas in the Northeast.
Including the Buffalo Niagara region.
The 288-hour forecast is now valid for Christmas morning!
Probability or chances of a White Christmas are actually increasing across the Plains -- but a lot more needs to change to get > 50% chance. This map is forecast prob (%) of at least an inch on the ground. pic.twitter.com/awOJLUwwtL
— Ryan Maue | weather.us (@RyanMaue) December 13, 2017
A brief respite from the cold will arrive in the Midwest and South this weekend. But a colder weather pattern may loom later next week as we lead up to #Christmas: https://t.co/fH3LxzqKuN pic.twitter.com/1Dxv6GeF5u
— The Weather Channel (@weatherchannel) December 11, 2017
Mostly for entertainment this far out, but if these forecast ensemble mean temperature anomalies verify, #Florida will be chuckling at the rest of the country a bit louder than usual this #Christmas. Then, there's Alaska... pic.twitter.com/DTfoG2GGy7
— Jonathan Erdman (@wxjerdman) December 13, 2017
May not be as entertaining as you think even this far out. Very believable given recent ensemble solutions and overall La Ninaesque pattern. https://t.co/imkxKVA658
— Jim Cantore (@JimCantore) December 13, 2017
Longer-range forecasters at the weather service's Climate Prediction Center are projecting better than equal chances for below-average temperatures and above-average precipitation in their 8-to-14 day forecast that covers Dec. 20 to 26.
And, AccuWeather is calling for a warmer than normal Christmas Eve, with snow and highs in the upper 30s, then a colder Christmas Day.
AccuWeather forecasts a Christmas Day high in the upper 20s with lows in the teens and chances for snow showers.
That would be a welcome change for local Christmas snow lovers from the trend over the last 12 years in Buffalo.
Less than an inch of total snow has fallen on Christmas Day in Buffalo since 2004. In 10 of those years, there was none.
Statistically speaking, there's snow on the ground for Christmas across Western New York more than 60 percent of the time, according to the National Weather Service.
But, there's only been more than 1 inch on the ground in Buffalo for three of the last 12 years.
Five of those years, including 2014 and 2015, there was no snow.