The Bills enter Week 14 at 6-6 and currently sit a game back of the last wild-card spot. What are the Bills' playoff chances looking like?
Simulations from the New York Times, FiveThirtyEight and the betting site betlabsports.com do not have favorable outlooks, giving the Bills no better than a 15 percent chance to make the playoffs, given the current standings. The Bills have winnable games to close out the season, though, which could significantly improve their chances (more on that below).
Here are the latest breakdowns for the Bills entering their Week 14 game against the Colts:
Odds to make the playoffs
New York Times: 15 percent (last week: 35 percent).
FiveThirtyEight: 15 percent (last week: 31 percent).
Betlab Sports: 11.5 percent (last week: 29.37 percent).
Odds to win the division
New York Times: Less than 1 percent (last week: 1 percent).
FiveThirtyEight: Less than 1 percent (last week: 2 percent).
Betlab Sports: 0 percent (last week: 1.39 percent).
Odds to win the Super Bowl
FiveThirtyEight: Less than 1 percent (last week: 1 percent).
Betlab Sports: 0 percent (last week: 0.07 percent).
It's worth noting that wins against the 3-9 Colts and 5-7 Dolphins (twice) would boost the Bills right back into contention. The New York Times' simulators, which are interactive, say that finishing 3-1 with a loss to the Patriots would put the Bills' odds in the mid-40s; going 9-7 and getting help sounds like the scenario we've been discussing all along.
If the Bills were able to win their final four games of the season to finish 10-6, then their odds would shoot up to nearly 90 percent.