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Assessing the Bills' final 3 opponents using a weighted efficiency metric

Let's take a different approach by using Football Outsiders' Weighted DVOA — to measure the quality of Buffalo's final three opponents over their last four games of the 2017 regular season.

DVOA is Football Outsiders' all-encompassing efficiency metric. Weighted DVOA takes things a step further.

Per the FO website: "Weighted DVOA represents an attempt to figure out how a team is playing right now, as opposed to over the season as a whole, by making recent games more important than earlier games."

Overall weighted DVOA

  • Colts: 26th
  • Dolphins: 31st
  • Patriots: 4th

Let's split that DVOA into offense and defense to help illustrate what the Bills offense and defense will be up against over the final four games of the season.

Weighted offensive DVOA

  • Colts: 27th
  • Dolphins: 30th
  • Patriots: 2nd

Weighted defensive DVOA

  • Colts: 24th
  • Dolphins: 28th
  • Patriots: 20th

Here's how the Bills rank in those three Weighted DVOA categories:

  • Overall: 24th
  • Offense: 29th
  • Defense: 19th

The game against the Patriots in New England clearly stands out as the far and away most difficult test remaining for Buffalo.

With the Steelers keeping pace with Tom Brady's team  — both sit at 10-2 heading into Week 14 — it seems unlikely that he and other Patriots starters would rest for Week 16's matchup against the Bills, as home-field advantage may not be locked up for New England at that juncture.

But Buffalo's contests against the Dolphins (twice) and the Colts this Sunday seem to provide good opportunities for the Bills to compile some wins down the stretch.

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