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View from Vegas: Betting trends and prediction for Patriots-Bills

Wow, Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott is one snakebitten guy.

After being crucified for his part in the Great Nathan Peterman Disaster versus the Chargers, McDermott wised up and returned QB Tyrod Taylor to his rightful starting position versus Kansas City. The Bills upset the Chiefs, but what does McDermott get for a reward? A visit from one of the most frightening juggernauts in recent NFL history.

New England is now 39-9 straight up since the start of the 2015 season and currently riding a 5-0 straight up/against the spread (ATS) win streak.

Need more reasons to back the Patriots here against a Buffalo squad that hasn’t beaten them on this field since 2011? Try these on for size: New England head coach Bill Belichick is 15-6 ATS during the month of December against division opponents coming off an ATS win of three or more points and he’s 11-1 ATS after facing the Dolphins.

All imposing numbers, as usual for the Pats – except one: They sport a 4.9 defensive yards per rush average and that’s a no-no when it comes to road favorites. However, you should know that the Bills are 4-1 ATS as underdogs in the first of three consecutive home games and 8-3 ATS as home 'dogs of three or more points.

Plus, this is the biggest line in Buffalo since 2013, when the Bills took 10 points from New England and covered in a two-point defeat.

With Taylor back behind center, we’ll ride the Bills as big 'dogs and try to turn McDermott’s frown upside down.

The pick: New England over BUFFALO by 3

Marc Lawrence previews the NFL from a Vegas perspective. You can follow him online at or @MarcLawrence.

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