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Bills playoff odds drop below 50 percent after latest loss; Titans and Ravens biggest wild-card threats

The Bills suffered their second consecutive bad loss last Sunday to fall to 5-4, but would still own a wild card spot if the season ended today. What are the Bills' playoff chances looking like?

Simulations from The New York Times, FiveThirtyEight and the betting site now say the Bills have below a 50 percent chance to end the drought, although their odds are in line with other wild-card contenders.

Here are their latest breakdowns for the Bills entering their Week 11 game against the Chargers:

Odds to make the playoffs

NYT: 44 percent (last week: 53 percent)
FiveThirtyEight: 36 percent (last week: 50 percent)
Betlab Sports: 34.37 percent (last week: 55.2 percent)

Playoff picture: Bills still hold playoff spot after blowout loss to Saints

Odds to win the division

NYT: 10 percent (last week: 17 percent)
FiveThirtyEight: 4 percent (last week: 11 percent)
Betlab Sports: 3.77 percent (last week: 13.8 percent)

Odds to win the Super Bowl

FiveThirtyEight: Less than 1 percent (last week: 2 percent)
Betlab Sports: 0.22 percent (last week: 1.2 percent)

Five things to know about the Los Angeles Chargers, the Bills' Week 11 opponent

The Patriots (7-2) and Steelers (7-2) are near locks to make the playoffs on FiveThirtyEight and BetLab, scoring over 99 percent, while the NYT scored them in the high 90s as well.

The Titans (6-3) and Ravens (4-5) are thought to be the Bills' biggest competitors for wild-card spots. No other AFC wild-card team scored above 20 percent on any site. (Both the Jaguars and Titans are 6-3 in the AFC South, but each site thinks the Jaguars are the superior team.)

The New York Times' simulators, which are interactive, say this week's game against the Chargers would result in (roughly) a 10-point swing in their playoff odds. It will also help the Bills for tiebreaking purposes, as they need to acquire wins against AFC teams.

Probability Index, Week 10: Bills playoff odds about 50-50 at halfway point

Probability Index, Week Nine: Bills playoff odds jump over 60 percent after beating Raiders

Playoff probability index, Week Eight: Bills continue to hover under 50 percent

Probability Index: Bills playoffs odds improve after having the week off, betting site says

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