The Bills suffered their second consecutive bad loss last Sunday to fall to 5-4, but would still own a wild card spot if the season ended today. What are the Bills' playoff chances looking like?
Simulations from The New York Times, FiveThirtyEight and the betting site betlabsports.com now say the Bills have below a 50 percent chance to end the drought, although their odds are in line with other wild-card contenders.
Here are their latest breakdowns for the Bills entering their Week 11 game against the Chargers:
Odds to make the playoffs
NYT: 44 percent (last week: 53 percent)
FiveThirtyEight: 36 percent (last week: 50 percent)
Betlab Sports: 34.37 percent (last week: 55.2 percent)
Odds to win the division
NYT: 10 percent (last week: 17 percent)
FiveThirtyEight: 4 percent (last week: 11 percent)
Betlab Sports: 3.77 percent (last week: 13.8 percent)
Odds to win the Super Bowl
FiveThirtyEight: Less than 1 percent (last week: 2 percent)
Betlab Sports: 0.22 percent (last week: 1.2 percent)
The Patriots (7-2) and Steelers (7-2) are near locks to make the playoffs on FiveThirtyEight and BetLab, scoring over 99 percent, while the NYT scored them in the high 90s as well.
The Titans (6-3) and Ravens (4-5) are thought to be the Bills' biggest competitors for wild-card spots. No other AFC wild-card team scored above 20 percent on any site. (Both the Jaguars and Titans are 6-3 in the AFC South, but each site thinks the Jaguars are the superior team.)
The New York Times' simulators, which are interactive, say this week's game against the Chargers would result in (roughly) a 10-point swing in their playoff odds. It will also help the Bills for tiebreaking purposes, as they need to acquire wins against AFC teams.