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Probability Index, Week 10: Bills playoff odds about 50-50 at halfway point

The Bills lost to the Jets last week to fall to 5-3 but would still own a wild card spot if the season ended today. What are the Bills' playoff chances looking like at the halfway point of the season?

Simulations from The New York Times, FiveThirtyEight and the betting site now say the Bills have about even chances to end the drought.

Here are their latest breakdowns for the Bills entering their Week 10 game against the Saints:

Odds to make the playoffs

NYT: 53 percent (last week: 61 percent).
FiveThirtyEight: 50 percent (last week: 63 percent).
Betlab Sports: 55.2 percent (last week: 67.66 percent).

Odds to win the division

NYT: 17 percent (last week: 25 percent).
FiveThirtyEight: 11 percent (last week: 21 percent).
Betlab Sports: 13.8 percent (last week: 21.62 percent).

Odds to win the Super Bowl

FiveThirtyEight: 2 percent.
Betlab Sports: 1.2 percent (last week: 2.46 percent).

The Eagles (8-1) and Steelers (6-2)  have the highest playoff chances in their respective conferences, scoring 95 percent or better on each site.

The New York Times' simulators, which are interactive, say this week's game against the Saints would result in (roughly) a 10-point swing in either direction. It won't help the Bills for tiebreaking purposes, though – they need division and conference wins for that.

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