Beware: Mother Nature's porch light is on, but she's dishing out tricks.
Forecasters project the first cold airmass of the season could stir a chill — and maybe some snowflakes — into the plastic pumpkin pails of Buffalo Niagara's trick-or-treaters on Tuesday.
Between here and there, several chilly wet days are in store, according to the National Weather Service.
Forecasts show rain, associated with the passage of a cold front is expected Saturday, with chances of showers continuing into the first half of Sunday as well.
High temperatures Saturday will be in the upper 50s but will struggle to make it to 50 degrees by Sunday.
Sunday's 1 p.m. conditions for the kickoff of the game between the Buffalo Bills and Oakland Raiders at New Era Field call for 48 degrees with a light west wind and a slight chance for showers.
Later Monday, the lake-effect machine kicks on.
Mainly as rain, forecasters say.
Because temperatures are expected to stay just warm enough about 5,000 feet up in the atmosphere, precipitation should fall as liquid, but the lake-effect rain bands are expected to stay stationary, forecasters said.
That could bring heavy and "possibly problematic rains northeast of Lake Erie."
"Localized flooding in the Buffalo metro area is not uncommon from stationary lake bands in the fall," the weather service stated.
The temperatures "should be JUST high enough to prevent any steady snow from developing, although some flakes cannot be ruled out."
— AccuWeather (@breakingweather) October 26, 2017
How close are we missing an early-season heavy lake-effect snow event?
"It's just 2-to-3 degrees too warm," said Dave Zaff. "A few degrees makes a big difference."
The chilly airmass sticks around for Halloween day, night and into Wednesday. More lake-effect rain is forecast, radar projections show.
The Buffalo Niagara region is escaping the nation's first major winter storm, which is bringing heavy snow to areas of Minnesota and freezing conditions through the Midwest as far south as Texas.
— Tom Niziol (@TomNiziol) October 27, 2017
— Mark Tarello (@mark_tarello) October 27, 2017