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Nate's remnants may dampen Columbus Day in WNY

The forecast for the Columbus Day weekend isn't as rosy as it was earlier this week.

It'll be unseasonably warm — maybe record-breaking in the low 80s Saturday — but there will be some turbulence. Here's what to expect:


A warm front crossing the Buffalo Niagara region Saturday will send temperatures 20 degrees above normal for Oct. 7. (National Weather Service)

Chances for showers dissipate after 8 a.m. and temperatures are forecast to quickly rise from the low 60s to the low 80s by mid-afternoon after a warm front pushes north through the Buffalo Niagara region.

Saturday's daily record – 82 degrees, set in 1955 – could be in jeopardy, weather service forecasters said.

A strong cold front is expected to pass through the region later Saturday evening.

It's not expected to have a big impact on temperatures, however, it could bring gusty winds with it and the potential for severe weather with a strong squall line, forecasters said.

The best chance for the bumpy weather will be during the overnight hours.

Some rain – about one-quarter inch – is also forecast at that time.


Once the cold front passes, there will be quick clearing, forecasters said.

That will pave the way for a mostly sunny, but breezy day.

Temperatures should reach into the mid-70s.

The forecast calls for south winds gusting over 30 mph.

The next chance for rain will come late Sunday into Columbus Day itself as the remnants from Tropical Storm Nate pass close to Western New York.

Columbus Day

The center of Nate is expected to track up through the Gulf into the Tennessee and Ohio valleys northeastward into New England by early next week. (National Hurricane Center)

Depending on the track of what's left over from Nate, the region could pick up anywhere from no rain to more than an inch in spots, especially south and east of Buffalo, forecasts show.

The center of Nate's remnants are forecast to track northward from the Ohio Valley into New England. It could provide a glancing blow in the Buffalo Niagara region.

The weather service calls for a 70 percent chance of rain on Monday.

"Will need several more runs (of forecast models) before it's possible to determine if precipitation makes it into WNY or remains south and east of the region," forecasters said about 10:30 a.m. Friday.

Temperatures will remain warm. Monday's high is expected in the mid-70s.

The average high temperature for Columbus day in Buffalo is 62 degrees.

Depending on the exact track of Nate, precipitation could also linger into Tuesday.

The Buffalo Niagara region will be right on the edge of some heavy precipitation expected from the remnants of Tropical Storm Nate. This forecast shows rainfall expected between 8 a.m. Monday and 8 a.m. Wednesday. (National Weather Service)

Chances for showers in Buffalo drops to 50 percent by Monday night and remains at 30 percent on Tuesday, the weather service reported.

Some areas in the extreme southeast of the Buffalo Niagara region, including some spots of Cattaraugus and Allegany counties could see more than an inch of rain over that time, according to weather service maps.

Temperatures will remain in the mid-70s again on Tuesday, should reach 70 again on Wednesday before dropping closer to normal by Thursday, forecasts show.

This would be Buffalo's third-most days of 70-degree readings or higher in the first two weeks of October since World War II.

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