There will be a significant storm early next week in the Northeast, including the Buffalo Niagara region.
Forecasters at the National Weather Service are pretty sure of that.
Whether it comes in the form of cold rain, or heavy snow is still to be determined, but the latter is looking increasingly likely, forecasters say (and some weather models show).
Its forecast track takes it into Tennessee by Monday and then up to about Chesapeake Bay later in the day, but moisture associated with the storm will be wide enough to impact Western New York.
And, the Buffalo Niagara region is expected to be on the cold side of the storm, forecasters project.
"The top analogs, all produced a swath of significant snowfall through New York State," according to this morning's weather service forecast discussion. "All of this points to increasing chances for potentially significant snowfall, while the possibility of a cold rain remains solidly on the table at this point as well."
Meanwhile, between now and then, above-average temperatures are forecast to continue through the weekend.
The thermometer is forecast to run close to 20 degrees above-normal on Saturday and Sunday.
Mostly cloudy conditions are forecast Saturday with a slight chance of showers and daytime high in the low 50s, the weather service reports.
Sunday is forecast to be mostly cloudy with temperatures in the upper 40s, near 50 degrees, forecasts show.
Historically, this is the coldest part of the calendar in Buffalo.
The average high temperature for this weekend is 31 degrees with a low of 18 degrees.
So far this month, only 2.9 inches of snow has fallen at the Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
That's nearly a foot less than normal by this time in January.