A year after the warmest December in Buffalo's history, its 2016 temperatures are running more than two degrees colder than average.
If the trend continues, December would be the first month in the last eight that's run below normal for temperature, and would join April as the only months to do so all year.
But the last 10 days may change that. A warm-up is in the offing, according to the National Weather Service forecast.
The relative warm-up starts Friday with a string of days of 40 degrees or more, including the first expected 50-degree day of the month on Monday, forecasts show.
That's nearly 20 degrees warmer than normal.
Luckily for those who hope to see the city's first white Christmas in three years, the warmest temperatures are forecast to hold off until after the holiday.
The amount of snow left on the ground for Christmas morning in Buffalo will depending heavily on how early the warm-up comes, and whether any rain falls during it.
As of early Wednesday, there was seven inches of snow depth reported at the Buffalo Niagara International Airport, the weather service reported.
Here's what to expect through the holiday weekend, according to the National Weather Service:
Today: partly sunny conditions, high of 37 degrees.
Tonight: a warm front brings a 50/50 chance for some snow showers. Accumulations of only about one-half inch in Buffalo are possible with an overnight low of 29 degrees.
Thursday: there's a 40 percent chance for snow showers with daytime highs in the upper 30s.
Thursday night: mostly cloudy, low of 30 degrees.
Friday: high pressure will bring sunny skies. Temperatures should crest above normal to near 40 degrees with breezy southwest winds.
Friday night: mostly cloudy conditions with a chance for scattered rain or wet snow showers and an overnight low temperature at the freezing mark.
Saturday at New Era Field: there's a 40 percent chance of rain showers in the morning with temperatures warming from about 36 degrees at 7 a.m. to 40 degrees by the 1 p.m. kickoff between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins. Temperatures are expected to hover in the low 40s during the game. It's expected to be mainly overcast. Chances for rain will be 20 to 25 percent. Westerly winds will keep the wind chills in the low 30s.
Christmas Eve: temperatures will be on a gradual decline from about 38 degrees at 5 p.m. down to 32 degrees by midnight. It's forecast to be mostly cloudy with diminishing westerly winds and lesser chances for precipitation. The overnight low is forecast to bottom out about 30 degrees for Santa's jaunt through the Buffalo Niagara region around 4 a.m.
Christmas Day: the morning begins with temperatures about 30 degrees at 7 a.m., warming up to 40 degrees between 1 and 4 p.m. Northwest winds become easterly by the afternoon hours with a mostly overcast day expected.
Overnight: temperatures start climbing about 10 p.m. from 34 degrees and remain above freezing with easterly winds becoming south-easterly by midnight and southerly by 5 a.m.
Monday: the thermometer continues its upward climb, forecasts show. The temperature gets back to 40 degrees by 6 a.m., 45 degrees by 11 a.m., and 50 degrees by 1 p.m., forecasts show. The daytime high is expected to reach 52 degrees with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Beyond that, forecasts suggest a warmer than average end to 2016 is possible, according to the weather service's Climate Prediction Center.
Temperatures return closer to normal on Tuesday, but are expected to stay in the mid to upper 30s through Friday with overnight lows in the 20s.
The average daily high temperature for the week is 33 degrees.
Extended forecasts from AccuWeather suggest New Year's Eve could be a gusty and snowy one in Buffalo.
Southwest winds gusting over 30 mph could make the 20 degree night feel like it's in the single digits, AccuWeather projects.