By David E. Sanger
WASHINGTON – An extraordinary breach has emerged between President-elect Donald Trump and the national security establishment, with Trump mocking U.S. intelligence assessments that Russia interfered in the election on his behalf, and top Republicans vowing investigations into Kremlin activities.
Trump, in a statement issued by his transition team Friday evening, expressed complete disbelief in the intelligence agencies’ assessments.
“These are the same people that said Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction,” Trump’s team said, adding that the election was over and that it was time to “move on.”
Though Trump has wasted no time in antagonizing the agencies, he will have to rely on them for the sort of espionage activities and analysis that they spend more than $70 billion a year to perform.
At this point in a transition, a president-elect is usually delving into intelligence he has never before seen and learning about CIA and National Security Agency abilities. But Trump, who has taken intelligence briefings only sporadically, is questioning not only analytic conclusions, but also their underlying facts.
“To have the president-elect of the United States simply reject the fact-based narrative that the intelligence community puts together because it conflicts with his a priori assumptions – wow,” said Michael Hayden, who was the director of the NSA and later the CIA under former President George W. Bush.
With the partisan emotions on both sides – Trump’s supporters see a plot to undermine his presidency, and Hillary Clinton’s supporters see a conspiracy to keep her from the presidency – the result is an environment in which even those basic facts become the basis for dispute.
Trump’s team lashed out at the agencies after the Washington Post reported that the CIA believed that Russia had intervened to undercut Clinton and lift Trump, and the New York Times reported that Russia had broken into Republican National Committee computer networks just as they had broken into Democratic ones, but had released documents only on the Democrats.
The president-elect finds himself in a bind after strenuously rejecting for months all assertions that Russia was working to help him, though he did at one point invite Russia to find thousands of Clinton’s emails.
While no evidence has been released that the Russian meddling affected the outcome of the election or the legitimacy of the vote, Trump and his aides want to shut the door on any such notion, including the idea that Russian President Vladimir Putin schemed to put him in office. Instead, Trump casts the issue as an unknowable mystery.
“It could be Russia,” he recently told Time magazine. “And it could be China. And it could be some guy in his home in New Jersey.”
The Republicans who lead the congressional committees overseeing intelligence, the Pentagon and the Department of Homeland Security take the opposite view. They say that Russia was behind the election meddling, but that the scope and intent of the operation need deep investigation, hearings and public reports.
One question they may want to explore is why the intelligence agencies believe that the Republican networks were compromised while the FBI, which leads domestic cyberinvestigations, has apparently told Republicans that it has not seen evidence of that breach. Senior officials say the intelligence agencies’ conclusions are not being widely shared, even with law enforcement.
“We cannot allow foreign governments to interfere in our democracy,” Rep. Michael McCaul, R-Texas, the chairman of the Homeland Security Committee who was considered by Trump for secretary of Homeland Security, said at the conservative Heritage Foundation. “When they do, we must respond forcefully, publicly and decisively.”
He has promised hearings, saying the Russian activity was “a call to action,” as has Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., one of the few senators left from the Cold War era, when the Republican Party made opposition to the Soviet Union – and later deep suspicion of Russia – the centerpiece of its foreign policy.
Sen. Charles E. Schumer, the incoming Senate Minority Leader, said Saturday that the CIA’s findings on Russian meddling are both “stunning and not surprising.”
Schumer, D-N.Y., said Saturday morning that the idea that any country “could be meddling in our elections should shake both political parties to their core.” He added that silence from WikiLeaks and others has been “deafening.”
“Senate Democrats will join with our Republican colleagues next year to demand a congressional investigation and hearings to get to the bottom of this,” Schumer said. “It’s imperative that our intelligence community turns over any relevant information so that Congress can conduct a full investigation.”
Julian Assange, the founder of WikiLeaks, has said in a television interview that the “Russian government is not the source.”
Rep. Peter T. King, R-N.Y., a member of the House Intelligence Committee, said there was little doubt the Russian government was involved in hacking the DNC.
“All of the intelligence analysts who looked at it came to the conclusion that the tradecraft was very similar to the Russians,” he said.
Even one of Trump’s most enthusiastic supporters, Rep. Devin Nunes, R-Calif., said Friday that he had no doubt about Russia’s culpability. His complaint was with the intelligence agencies, which he said had “repeatedly” failed “to anticipate Putin’s hostile actions,” and with the Obama administration’s lack of a punitive response.
Nunes, the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, said that the intelligence agencies had “ignored pleas by numerous Intelligence Committee members to take more forceful action against the Kremlin’s aggression.” He added that the Obama administration had “suddenly awoken to the threat.”
Like many Republicans, Nunes is threading a needle. His statement puts him in opposition to the position taken by Trump and his incoming national security adviser, Michael Flynn, who has traveled to Russia as a private citizen for RT, the state-controlled news operation, and attended a dinner with Putin.
Nunes’s contention that Obama was captivated by a desire to “reset” relations with Russia is also notable, because Trump has said he is trying to do the same – though he is avoiding that term, which was made popular by Clinton in her failed effort to do so while secretary of state in 2009.
Intelligence can get politicized, of course, and one of the running debates about the disastrously mistaken assessments of Iraq that Trump often cites is whether the intelligence itself was tainted or whether the Bush White House read it selectively to support its march to war in 2003.
But what is unfolding in the argument over the Russian hacking is more complex, because tracking the origin of cyberattacks is complicated. It is made all the harder by the fact that the CIA and the NSA do not want to reveal human sources or technical abilities, including U.S. software implants in Russian computer networks.
This much is known: In mid-2015, a hacking group long associated with the FSB – the successor to the old Soviet KGB – got inside the Democratic National Committee’s computer systems. The intelligence gathering appeared to be fairly routine, and it was unsurprising: The Chinese, for instance, penetrated Obama’s and McCain’s presidential campaign communications in 2008.
In the spring of 2016, a second group of Russian hackers, long associated with the GRU, a military intelligence agency, attacked the DNC again, along with the private email accounts of prominent Washington figures like John Podesta, the chairman of Clinton’s campaign. Those emails were ultimately published – a step the Russians had never taken before in the United States, though the tactic has been used often in former Soviet states and elsewhere in Europe. That moved the issue from espionage to an “information operation” with a political motive.
In briefings to Obama and on Capitol Hill, intelligence agencies have said they now believe that what began as an effort to undermine the credibility of U.S. elections morphed over time into a much more targeted effort to harm Clinton, whom Putin has long accused of interfering in Russian parliamentary elections in 2011.
The Washington Post contributed to this story.