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Changes coming to calendar, WNY weather

The calendar flips from November to December at midnight.

With it, what is projected to go down as the ninth warmest November in the city's history will be just that -- history.

And, December will feel much more like... well, like December.

Daytime highs, which were in the 50s over the past few days, will return to average in the low 40s through mid next-week, the forecast shows.

A cold front will cross the Buffalo Niagara region later night, helping to drop temperatures and bringing spotty rainfall.

Behind it, forecasters at the National Weather Service say "a strengthening west-southwest flow of cooler air eventually triggers the development of scattered to numerous lake-effect rain showers downwind of Lake Erie."

Lake-effect precipitation is forecast in the Buffalo Niagara region for Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

Rain will likely fall across the lower elevations, while snow is forecast in the higher terrain. (

By 7 p.m. Friday, rain will likely fall across the lower elevations from the metro Buffalo area, east and northward, while snow is forecast in the higher terrain spots across the region. (

Temperatures will play a big role whether that precipitation falls in the form of rain or snow.

The metro Buffalo area and north will be mostly in for a cold rain, with some snowflakes mixed in as the weekend approaches, forecasters said. Areas of the Southern Tier and higher elevations of the region could see accumulating snow.

It will likely be warm enough on Thursday to keep it as rain in the Buffalo metro area, east through Genesee and Wyoming counties, and even most of the higher elevations.

A slight shift in the wind later Thursday will push the precipitation southward as winds come in from the west.

As the air cools, wet snow is forecast to start mixing in.

The Boston Hills, western Wyoming County and the higher elevations of the western Southern Tier could get up to two inches of wet snow by early Friday, according to forecasters.

Meanwhile, in warmer spots of the Buffalo Southtowns closer to the lake, forecasters project that up to 3/4-inch of lake-effect rain is possible over that time frame.

By late Friday into early Saturday, another shift in the wind direction will bring the air flow into the region from the northwest.

That's expected to move the lake-effect precipitation even more south into the Southern Tier and northwestern Pennsylvania, the forecast states.



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