The rain is starting. The wind is blowing.
Next, comes the snow.
Wintry weather is on its way to Western New York Saturday.
On and off rain and snow showers are expected Saturday evening before lake-effect snow moves into the region.
The Buffalo area is expected to only get 1 to 3 inches between Saturday night and Sunday night, said Jon Hitchcock, meteorologist with the National Weather Service office in Buffalo.
Southern Erie, Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties are under a lake-effect snow warning from 4 p.m. Saturday through 10 a.m. Monday. On Saturday, the National Weather Service extended the area of the lake effect snow advisory to Orleans County and extended the lake-effect snow advisory for Genesee County from to 7 p.m. Monday.
"The highest accumulations will be in the typical areas well south of Buffalo," he said. Mayville, Cassadaga and Ellicottville will likely see the highest snow totals – 10 to 14 inches may be possible by Monday morning.
— The Weather Channel (@weatherchannel) November 18, 2016
Areas well east of Buffalo – Genesee and Orleans counties – are expected to get three to six inches of snow.
Along with the wind will be some blustery winds blowing 20 to 30 mph with gusts in the 40 to 50 mph range. In areas with heavier snow fall, Hitchcock warned, that could cause near white-out conditions, especially in open areas.
Temperature-wise, the highs will be in the mid-30s Sunday with overnight lows Saturday and Sunday in the mid to upper 20s.
The only thing unusual about the forecast is that the season's first snow will come less than 36 hours removed from a near record-breaking day of warmth with Friday's temperature in the 70s.
Otherwise, it's right on time.
The average date for the first inch of snow at the Buffalo airport is Nov. 18.
Last year was the latest date on record in the city for the first measurable snow. The first one-tenth inch didn't fall until Dec. 18, breaking the previous record set Dec. 3, 1899.
The snowfall is part of a complex storm system that is bringing blizzard conditions to the upper Midwest as a deep area of low pressure moves up north of the Great Lakes through Ontario.
Something to think about: Lake Erie's temperature Friday was 48 degrees.
On Nov. 18, 2014, the day of the first of two epic lake-effect snowstorms, it was 46 degrees.
Two years ago, though, it was frigid air persistently flowing into the region over much of the 241-mile expanse of Lake Erie from the southwest.
And the atmospheric conditions ripened up just right.
Looking further ahead past this weekend: The snow is expected to taper off Monday and temperatures will warm up a bit. On Tuesday, it should be sunny with highs in the upper 30s. By Wednesday, it should still be clear with a high around 40. The National Weather Service forecasts a high temperature for Thanksgiving Day in Buffalo of 44 degrees although it's expected to rain.
A storm system is shaping up to roll through the region on Thanksgiving eve and Thanksgiving Day.
Early indications are the precipitation will come mostly in the form of rain, however, NOAA's Global Forecast System model shows precipitation could change over to snow early on Black Friday.