MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. – To get the low down on Sunday's game between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins, we reached out to our buddy in Las Vegas, Joel Staniszewski.
He’s a St. Joe’s and Buffalo State graduate who has lived in Las Vegas for more than 10 years and worked as an oddsmaker, handicapper and casino analyst.
Here's his take on Bills-Dolphins: "It's been quite some time since the Bills have been a road favorite within our division. The last time was week 10 of 2007. The Bills with Trent Edwards at the helm went into Miami and squeaked out a 13-10 win to get to 5-4 as a 2.5-point favorite.
"The Bills opened as a 2.5-point favorite with a total over/under of 45.5 this week at Miami. I was watching the Bills game and wasn't paying any attention to the Dolphins game. I was guessing the line would be more like minus-4.5 for the Bills. Seeing the Dolphins actually put a decent game together and taking off my homer glasses I see how the line fit the match up."
The line moved to the Bills being favored by three points, but Staniszewski said that came back down after running back LeSean McCoy was hurt in practice, putting his availability into question.
"The biggest change thus far has been to the total. Most books in Vegas have dropped the total down to 43.5. If we are told that McCoy is out, I don't expect books to move the line until they start getting money on the Dolphins. He is truly the backbone of our offense, but him being out isn't necessarily a death sentence. Mike Gillislee is a very capable backup and could do very well against the Dolphins' porous run defense.
"Here's where I think this game can get crazy for betting. If the Bills win convincingly and the Patriots play OK against the Steelers, the Bills could be favored next week in Vegas books. You have to go back to 1999 to find a Bills team that was favored against the Patriots. More than likely, the Patriots will be a small favorite depending on the outcomes of these games."