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Poll: Clinton boosts lead over Trump in New York but both are unpopular

ALBANY – Nearly six in 10 registered voters believe Hillary Clinton is not honest or trustworthy, yet she continues to enjoy a strong lead over Donald Trump in the race for votes in heavily blue state of New York, a new poll has found.

The new Siena College poll out Wednesday morning shows her beating Trump by 24 points - 54-30 percent - if the election were held today. In fact, Clinton's lead has grown from the 21 point lead she enjoyed a month ago in the last Siena poll.

And while 58 percent said Clinton is not honest or trustworthy, 73 percent of respondents – including 40 percent of Republicans – voiced the same worries about Trump. Forty-six percent said they have an unfavorable view of Clinton, while 69 percent have the same view of Trump.

While Clinton is expected to handily win New York, Siena’s poll shows a tighter race upstate between the former Secretary of State and the wealthy Manhattan real estate tycoon. That could have an impact on down-ballot races, especially in key state Senate races upstate, including Western New York.

Broken down geographically, Clinton leads Trump 73-17 percent in New York City and 47-38 percent in the downstate suburbs. In upstate, Clinton’s showing over Trump is at 43-37 percent. The poll, taken October 13-17 of 611 self-identified likely voters, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.

Nine percent of respondents said they support two minor party candidates. Libertarian Gary Johnson was backed by 5 percent of voters and Jill Stein of the Green Party got 4 percent. Seven percent said they either didn’t know who they were voting for, don’t plan on voting or don’t know yet how they’ll vote.

A Republican has not won New York’s presidential campaign since Ronald Reagan in 1984.

Siena spokesman Steve Greenberg said Clinton now has a 17 point lead over Trump among New York independent voters, up from just two points last month. And 79 percent of respondents, no matter their choice, think Clinton is going to win the presidency.

“New York is poised to be a blue presidential state for the eighth consecutive election,’’ Greenberg said.

Digging through the poll’s cross tabs reveals an unsurprising result: New York voters are not thrilled with the state of the country. Fifty-two percent said they are pessimistic Congress and the new president will be able to work together. Fifty-four percent said the nation is headed in the wrong direction.

Among women voters, Clinton leads Trump 58-27 percent. Among males, her lead narrows to 50-34 percent.

Among white voters, Clinton is ahead 46-38 percent, while she gets 81 percent of the African-American vote to Trump’s 7 percent. Latinos back Clinton 68-19 percent.

And in the age crosstabs, Clinton has her strongest lead with voters between the ages of 18 and 34 years old.

Catholic voters are split – at 44 percent apiece – between Clinton and Trump, while Clinton has strong leads among Jewish, Protestant and voters of other religions.

Not long ago, Trump talked of New York being in play in the presidential race. That has not happened, in part, given these basic numbers: there are 5.8 million registered Democrats in New York compared with 2.7 million Republicans.

The Siena poll did not look at any other down ballot elections in New York other than the race for U.S. Senate. As previous polls have shown, it’s not much of a race: incumbent Sen. Charles Schumer leads Republican Wendy Long 63-28 percent; a third of Republicans say they back Schumer.


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