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An 80° Tuesday would be warmest late October day since 1979

Technically, it does not fit the description of "Indian Summer" in Buffalo and the Niagara Frontier, but Tuesday could feel pretty summery for Oct. 18.

The National Weather Service forecasts a 79-degree sunny day for Buffalo with readings above 80 degrees in the Genesee Valley and the Finger Lakes.

Either way, it's more than 20 degrees above normal in another abnormally warm month. The average high temperature for Tuesday's date in Buffalo is 58 degrees.

Last year, there was even a trace of snow.

The record high for the date - 82 degrees - was set in 1947.

Because a southwesterly flow of air will pass over a relatively cooler 64 degree Lake Erie, it's likely that record is safe in Buffalo, weather service forecasters project.

However, the daily record of 83 degrees in Rochester could be broken.

The warmth is being generated by southerly air being pumped into the region.


Most of New York State will be in a sector of warm southerly air that will push temperatures more than 20 degrees above normal for the date. (National Weather Service)

A deepening area of low pressure above the upper Great Lakes will help to generate some stiff winds too.

Gusts approaching 50 mph are possible across Western New York on Tuesday. The weather service issued a wind advisory from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Tuesday for Erie, Niagara, Orleans, Genesee, Wyoming and Chautauqua counties.


That southwest wind, and the 64-degree Lake Erie temperature, will be enough to cool the air in Buffalo and inland from the shoreline, even as the lake remains at a level of record warmth for this late in the season.

It's never been warmer as of Monday. The lake temperature was also 64 degrees on this date in both 2013 and 1931, weather service records show.

The water temperature has been bolstered by another month of above-average warmth in a year filled with them.

The first 16 days of October have averaged 58.6 degrees in Buffalo.

That's more than four degrees above-average and ninth on the all-time list for October warmth since records started being kept at the Buffalo Niagara International Airport during World War II.

Incidentally, "Indian Summer" is defined as a period of abnormally warm weather following a killing frost.

Although that's happened across portions of the Southern Tier and Wyoming County, it's yet to occur in Buffalo or the Niagara Frontier, according to Dave Thomas, a weather service meteorologist.

The "growing season" is likely to continue until at least early next week in those areas, Thomas said.

Last year, snowflakes flew over places like Ralph Wilson Stadium on a frustrating afternoon for Bills fans:


The Cincinnati Bengals 34-21 victory over the Buffalo Bills on Oct. 18, 2015 dropped them to 3-3 on the season. Winter hats were the order of the day. The temperature only reached the mid-40s and bottomed out near freezing. (Buffalo News file photo)


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