WASHINGTON – Donald Trump’s campaign for president remains in trouble in his home state of New York, as Democrat Hillary Clinton has slightly widened her lead over the Republican nominee in the past two months to 30 points in a head-to-head matchup, according to a Siena College poll released Monday.
Clinton leads Trump 57 percent to 27 percent among registered voters in a two-way race, up from 54 percent to 31 percent in June. In other words, the poll shows that Trump’s problems nationally – a Republican convention that left him with no lasting “bounce” in support and three weeks of controversial statements since then – appear to have taken root in the Empire State, too.
“Despite Trump’s claims to carry New York, the Empire State seems firmly planted on the blue side of the map,” Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg said. “New Yorkers have voted Democratic in the last seven presidential elections and there does not appear to be a real threat to end that streak.”
The Siena poll is the latest of several that have shown it would be difficult for Trump to win New York. Nevertheless, the billionaire developer has repeatedly promised to try to contest the state.
And just last week, Trump’s New York campaign co-chair, Buffalo developer Carl P. Paladino, told Time Warner Cable News that Trump would do another swing through the state’s major cities in September, just as he had done before winning the state’s Republican primary in April.
“We’re for sure going to do Buffalo,” Paladino said. “Buffalo will be a key location. It will be, hopefully, a weekend night when people can for sure get there.”
The poll also found that Clinton leads Trump, 50 percent to 25 percent, in a four-way race with Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein. Johnson garners 9 percent, while Stein has 6 percent.
Both the two-way and four-way measures show Trump has deep problems in the state that in some ways exceed his campaign’s challenges nationwide.
In a two-way matchup, for example, Trump wins the support of only 55 percent of New York Republicans, while Clinton wins the support of 81 percent of Democrats. Nationwide, an early August Reuters-Ipsos poll showed Trump with the support of 80 percent of Republicans surveyed.
And while many national polls have showed Trump winning among men while losing by a wide margin among women, the Siena New York poll showed Clinton with double-digit leads among both sexes.
By a 40-point margin, voters said Clinton is more qualified than Trump to serve as commander in chief. And by a 32-point margin, voters said Clinton would be more effective than Trump in working with Congress.
Voters who responded to the poll don’t think either candidate is particularly honest, but they tend to trust Clinton far more than Trump. Beset by an investigation into her use of a private email server as secretary of state – and criticized by fact-checkers for her response to questions about it, Clinton finds herself distrusted by a strong majority of voters in the state she used to represent in the United States Senate. Only 37 percent of New York voters said she is honest and trustworthy, while 60 percent said she is not.
Yet by a 16-point margin, voters said she is more honest and trustworthy than Trump, whose statements have been rated mostly false or worse 70 percent of the time that PolitiFact, the fact-checking website, has reviewed them. Only 28 percent of voters in the Siena poll said Trump is honest and trustworthy, while 69 percent said he is not.
The Siena poll was conducted Aug. 7-10 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 points.