Vox writer Joseph Stromberg examined a series of papers from economists Cade Massey and Richard Thaler that researched the NFL draft.
Stromberg summarizes the findings, which essentially advise against doing what the Bills did last year in trading up to draft wideout Sammy Watkins:
"Because teams just aren't that good at evaluating a player's chance of success, Massey and Thaler's analysis says in the current trade market, teams are better off trading down whenever they get an offer — that is, trading one high pick for multiple lower ones, in order to diversify risk. But many teams, like the Bills, become overconfident in their evaluation of one particular player and do the opposite: they package several slightly lower picks for the right to take one player very early."
Earlier this week The News' Jay Skurski took a look at the trade, with input from NFL analysts Jon Gruden, James Lofton and KC Joyner.