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One more time: The UB tie-breaker breakdown on final day of MAC regular season

One more time, University at Buffalo fans. Here's how the Mid-American Conference men's basketball race stands on the last day of the regular season.

Central Michigan 12-5. Toledo 11-6. Buffalo 11-6. Bowling Green 11-6. Kent State 11-6. Five teams in a race for four byes in the conference tournament, and if you don't have at least one bye you're toast. Top two get a double-bye to the semifinals.

Tonight (all games are 7 p.m.): BG at UB, Toledo at Eastern Michigan, Central Michigan at Western Michigan, Akron at Kent.

UB clinches at least a top-four spot with a victory. It swept Kent and beat BG in the first meeting. But UB very likely falls to fifth with a loss to BG. )

If all the favorites win (UB, CM, Toledo, Kent), UB finishes second. We'll call that the Somewhat Likeliest Scenario. If UB loses, it needs Kent State to lose at home to Akron (9-9), which is not promising for UB. Akron is slumping since it lost its starting point guard to a season-ending knee injury.

SCENARIOS:

UB wins, CMU wins, Kent wins, Toledo wins. UB is second.
UB wins, CMU wins, Kent loses, Toledo wins. UB is third.
UB wins, CMU wins, Kent wins, Toledo loses. UB is second.
UB wins, CMU wins, Kent loses, Toledo loses. UB is second.
UB wins, CMU loses, Kent wins, Toledo wins. UB is third.
UB wins, CMU loses, Kent loses, Toledo wins. UB is third.
UB wins, CMU loses, Kent wins, Toledo loses. UB is second.
UB wins, CMU loses, Kent loses, Toledo loses, UB is second.

If UB loses, it must have a Kent loss to finish fourth, regardless of what Toledo does. A two-way tie with Kent is good. A two-way tie with Toledo is bad. Losses by UB, Kent and Toledo will also give UB third. UB loss, Toledo win and Kent win gives UB fifth. UB loss, Toledo win and Kent loss give UB fourth.

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