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UB's MAC Tourney Scenarios; Bottom line: Beat BG

Bottom line: UB very likely needs to win Friday in the regular-season finale showdown against Bowling Green.

The top two Mid-American Conference seeds get byes into the semifinals. The third and fourth seeds get a bye into the quarterfinals.

Central Michigan leads the MAC at 12-5. UB, Bowling Green, Toledo and Kent State are 11-6.

Schedule: BG at UB, Toledo at Eastern Michigan, Central Michigan at Western Michigan, Akron at Kent.

If all the favorites win, UB finishes second. We'll call that the Somewhat Likeliest Scenario.

If UB loses, it needs Kent State to lose at home to Akron (9-9), which is not promising for UB. Akron is slumping since it lost its starting point guard to a season-ending knee injury.

SCENARIOS:

UB wins, CMU wins, Kent wins, Toledo wins. UB is second.
UB wins, CMU wins, Kent loses, Toledo wins. UB is third.
UB wins, CMU wins, Kent wins, Toledo loses. UB is second.

UB wins, CMU wins, Kent loses, Toledo loses. UB is second.
UB wins, CMU loses, Kent wins, Toledo wins. UB is third.
UB wins, CMU loses, Kent loses, Toledo wins. UB is third.
UB wins, CMU loses, Kent wins, Toledo loses. UB is second.
UB wins, CMU loses, Kent loses, Toledo loses, UB is second.

If UB loses, it must have a Kent loss to finish fourth, regardless of what Toledo does.

UB beat Kent twice and lost its only game vs. Toledo. A two-way tie with Kent is good. A two-way tie with Toledo is bad.

For the record, here’s the MAC Tie-Breaker Policy:
Ties in winning percentage, and thus for Tournament seeding positions shall be broken according to the following [Revised 5/25/2010]:
1. Between TWO teams:
A. Head-to-head competition
B. Division record (for the purpose of determining division champion)
C. Winning percentage* vs. ranked conference teams (top to bottom, regardless of division, vs. common opponents regardless of the number of times played)
D. Coin flip
2. For MULTIPLE (3 or more) team ties:
E.  Total won-lost record/winning percentage* of games played among the tied teams
F.  Two (2)-team tie-breaker procedure goes into effect (refer to A).
Once a three-team tie has been reduced to two teams, the two-team tiebreaker will go into effect.
* - Winning percentage is used instead of record because of situations where teams do not play each other the same number of times. Therefore, a team that is 1-0 (1.000) would win the tiebreaker over a team that is 1-1 (.500).

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