Mitt Romney is the clear Republican front-runner in Iowa in the final days before the first voting in the 2012 presidential election. But that's where the clarity ends in this unpredictable nomination race.
Five others are fighting, as they have all year, to emerge as the Romney alternative.
The ascendant Rick Santorum and Rick Perry are battling to win over social conservatives. Libertarian-leaning Ron Paul is working to preserve support that's starting to slip. Newt Gingrich is struggling to end his sharp slide. Michele Bachmann is hardly a factor.
"It may be Romney's to lose at this point," said John Stineman, an Iowa GOP campaign strategist. "And it's a battle among the rest."
While much can happen before Tuesday's caucuses, public surveys and internal polls as well as interviews with Republican activists, Iowa voters and political operatives both inside and outside the candidates' campaigns suggest that Romney is in strong contention to win Tuesday's caucuses.
Paul, who surged this month, has faded some following attacks on his foreign policy positions. Santorum and Perry are climbing, but evangelical Republicans and cultural conservatives continue to divide their support among the field -- giving Romney an opening. And a large contingent of voters hasn't yet locked in on a candidate as the clock winds down.
Romney was either slightly ahead or in a virtual tie with Paul in NBC/Marist and CNN/Time polls, with Santorum running third. A new poll by the Des Moines Register, which has endorsed Romney, late Saturday showed Romney and Paul statistically even at the front of the pack. Romney had 24 percent and while Paul had 22 percent. Santorum was third with 15 percent of likely voters backing him.
Gingrich had 12 percent support and Perry had 11 percent. Bachmann trailed with 7 percent.
With the stakes high, the candidates pressed their closing messages Saturday and released final TV ads while volunteers and staffers canvassed the state to both persuade undecided and mobilize backers.
Notably absent was Paul, the Texas congressman who returned to his home state late Friday to spend the holiday weekend with his family. Paul, however, is appearing on several morning news programs today.
By Saturday afternoon, an upbeat Romney had returned to Iowa from a brief trip to New Hampshire. In Le Mars, he drew a crowd of 300 people, including supporter Alan Lucken, who shouted to the candidate: "You're going to win."
"I'm planning on it," the former Massachusetts governor said and later told a reporter, "I sure hope to. I'll tell you that."
Santorum, meanwhile, looked to capitalize on his recent surge in polls by focusing on southern portions of rural Iowa, where the former Pennsylvania senator has made a point of visiting more often than his rivals. And he rolled out a new TV ad casting him as "a trusted conservative who gives us the best chance to take back America."
Perry's advisers see Santorum within reach and have begun attacking the former senator for having supported spending on home-state pet projects, an unpopular position in these tough economic times.
"I think the world of Rick Santorum. He's got a great family. But we've got some real difference when it comes to fiscal issues," Perry told supporters in Boone. "Those differences couldn't be clearer when it comes to important issues in this election like spending."
Gingrich, for his part, was spending the weekend pleading anew with Iowans to side with him despite what they have learned about him through millions of dollars in attack advertising by Paul and a political action committee bankrolled by Romney supporters.
Bachmann, who had fallen since last summer to single digits in Iowa polls, spent the day at her Des Moines-area state campaign headquarters rallying supporters and volunteers. Ten protesters connected to the nationwide Occupy movement were arrested outside the office in a suburban strip mall. Bachmann did not come outside of the building.