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Typical midwinter week on tap; January Thaw II expected for weekend

Another topsy-turvy week or two of weather is expected in Buffalo, with a second January thaw shaping up for next weekend, the National Weather Service forecast shows.

By the end of this week, the weather service projects several days of above-freezing temperatures with a return to 50 degrees expected with rain possible Sunday.

That unseasonable warmth during what's typically the coldest average stretch of the calendar for Buffalo is expected to continue into next week as well, according to the Climate Prediction Center's six- to 10-day forecast.

Expect ordinary mid-January weather until Thursday with cold and some rounds of both synoptic and lake-effect snow.

Here's the National Weather Service forecast for the week:

Today and tonight

A flood warning for Tonawanda Creek in northeastern Erie, southeastern Niagara and west-central Genesee counties was extended today by the weather service.

Emergency officials in Newstead told the weather service late Monday morning that Tonawanda Creek and tributaries to it were continuing to flood.

"The flooding is resulting in several road closures near the creek," the weather service said. "Cold temperatures have also resulted in extensive ice formation in flooded areas."

Portions of Newstead, Amherst and the Tonawanda Reservation were reported affected.

Forecasters said water levels already crested. They are forecast to "slowly fall" from this afternoon through Tuesday.

A flood warning was also in effect for the Allegany River in Olean today.

Minor flooding was reported in Allegany and upstream from Olean but waters were receding this morning, the weather service said.

Meanwhile, scattered snow showers by late afternoon ahead of an approaching Alberta Clipper system with a 90 percent chance of snow overnight as the storm system passes just north of the region.

Snow, associated with a passing Alberta clipper system, is forecast to arrive in the Buffalo Niagara region later today. (NWS)

The snow was expected to impact the entire Buffalo Niagara region.

A daytime high temperature of 25 degrees is expected with an overnight low of 23.

An inch of new snow is possible in Buffalo, forecasters said.

Tuesday

An Alberta clipper system is forecast to track just north of the Buffalo Niagara region, bringing some snow with it Monday night and Tuesday. (NWS)

The clipper "could be enough to make a tricky Tuesday morning commute," the weather service said.

Morning snow with snow showers possible in the afternoon will be swept away by a passing dry cold front.

When all's said and done, forecasters are calling for a general 1 to 3 inches of snow across Western New York from the passing clipper system.

Daytime highs will be in the mid- to high 20s ahead of the cold front but will fall after it passes, forecasters said.

Later Tuesday, some lake-effect snows could develop as winds shift to the southwest behind the cold front. There could be some blowing and drifting snow.

There's a 50/50 chance for more snow overnight Tuesday with temperatures in the teens.

Wednesday

Afternoon snow showers are likely through the evening as lake-effect snows are expected to continue east of Lake Erie.

Some significant accumulations are possible, but forecasters were still trying to pin down exact forecast totals and locations.

How iced over is Lake Erie today? More than 76 percent

The high is forecast to be 22 degrees with an overnight low in the teens.

Thursday

Mostly sunny.

The high will be in the mid-20s, but it'll feel a lot chillier thanks to breezy conditions. Overnight lows will be in the low 20s.

The eastern half of the United States, including the Buffalo Niagara region, is expected to be above-average for warmth again in the six- to 10-day outlook, which includes the period from Saturday through Wednesday, Jan. 24. (Climate Prediction Center)

Beyond

Temperatures in Buffalo are expected to return above freezing on Friday with highs in the mid-30s under partly sunny skies.

Forecasts show they'll get into the 40s Saturday with chances for rain and snow showers.

It's expected to stay above freezing overnight, reaching 50 degrees with a 40 percent chance of showers on Sunday.

Above-average temperatures are expected to continue into early next week, too, forecasters said.

The average high temperature for this time of year is 31 degrees.

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