The most favorable stat in the Bills favor is that quarterbacks in their first playoff game have struggled at home over the last 15 years, going 7-14 straight up and and 6-15 against the spread. That is the status of Jacksonville's Blake Bortles.
Then again quarterback in their first playoff game are just 4-13 straight up and 5-11-1 against the spread while on the road. That is the status of the Bills' Tyrod Taylor.
The dynamics of the contest (Jags off a pair of losses; Bills playing third consecutive in a row away) work heavily in Jacksonville’s favor.
But here are some other trends of note:
- The good news for Buffalo is its 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS away all-time in games at Jacksonville.
- NFL home teams coming off consecutive losses (the Jaguars) are 14-3 SU and ATS since 1990.
- Looking inside the stats, Jacksonville held seven opponents to a season-low – or second lowest – yardage this season, whereas Buffy was just 4-12 ITS (In The Stats) this season. The bottom line is the Bills are losing games an average minus-51 net YPG this season, while the Jags are 11-5 ITS, winning the stats an average net plus-80 net YPG.
- NFL playoff teams in their third consecutive away game, off a SUATS win, are 9-35 SU and 13-31 ATS since 1980. That is what the Bills face.
- Buffalo is 0-6 SU and 0-5-1 ATS away when coming off consecutive away games in which the Bills are coming off a win of more than three points.
The pick: JACKSONVILLE over Buffalo by 12