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Probability index: Just keep winning, just keep winning...

The Bills enter Week 15 in a tie for the last wild-card spot at 7-6. What are their playoff odds looking like?

The answer resembles the refrain from Dory in the Disney classic "Finding Nemo" – just keep winning, just keep winning, just keep winning...

Simulations from the New York Times, FiveThirtyEight and the betting site betlabsports.com do not have favorable outlooks at the moment, giving the Bills no better than a 25 percent chance to make the playoffs given the current standings, but wins would shoot their odds significantly higher. The Bills have two winnable games against Miami among their final three contests, and scoring victories in those would significantly improve their chances (more on that below).

Here are the latest breakdowns for the Bills entering their Week 15 game against the Dolphins:

Odds to make the playoffs

New York Times: 25 percent (last week: 15 percent).
FiveThirtyEight: 21 percent (last week: 15 percent).
Betlab Sports: 22.53 percent (last week: 11.5 percent).

Odds to win the division

New York Times: 1 percent (last week: Less than 1 percent).
FiveThirtyEight: Less than 1 percent (last week: Less than 1 percent).
Betlab Sports: 0.07 percent (last week: 0 percent).

Odds to win the Super Bowl

FiveThirtyEight: Less than 1 percent (last week: Less than 1 percent).
Betlab Sports: 0.04 percent (last week: 0 percent).

If the Bills were able to win out and finish 10-6, the New York Times' simulators, which are interactive, would plug their playoff odds over 90 percent. Even with a loss to the Patriots to finish 9-7, the Bills' odds would be about favorable, at around 63 percent.

The Patriots' loss last week prevented them from clinching the division, but that will happen with their next win or with the Bills' next loss. The Bills mostly need help in the form of Ravens losses. They close with an easy schedule, though, facing the Browns, Colts and Bengals.

Probability index: Bills' playoff odds take fall, but winning cures all

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