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View from Vegas: Betting trends and prediction for Bills-Colts

The Bills (6-6) are chasing the Jaguars and Ravens for an AFC wild card spot. They should be able to make up some ground in the next few weeks with Indianapolis and Miami coming to town, but with QB Tyrod Taylor day-to-day with a patellar tendon contusion and Nathan Peterman on standby, we’re more in limbo than Chubby Checker.

It’s probably a good thing as our database reminds us that both squads bring surprisingly good numbers into this fray. The Colts are 15-5 straight up and against the spread following a game against the Jags, including 7-1 ATS the last eight, 6-1 ATS off consecutive division games and 19-8 ATS as underdogs off a loss, including 15-1 ATS against non-division opposition. They are also 8-3 SUATS during the final four games of the season when playing with revenge against a foe coming off a loss.

Not to be outdone, the Bills are 22-8 SU and ATS at home after facing the Pats, including 15-2 SU and 14-3 ATS as a favorite of seven or fewer points, and an inhospitable 16-5 SU and 15-5-1 ATS at home in this series since the Colts left Baltimore.

Still, the hosts need a "Taylor" before we fit into this one. Pass for now.

But if we have to ...

The pick: BUFFALO over Indianapolis by 4

Marc Lawrence previews the NFL from a Vegas perspective. You can follow him online at Playbook.com or @MarcLawrence.

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