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Probability index: Bills playoff chances now less than 1-in-4, projection sites say

The Bills fell to .500 with their third straight loss, but they are still tied for a wild-card spot. What are the their playoff chances looking like?

Simulations from the New York Times, FiveThirtyEight and the betting site betlabsports.com now give the Bills less than 1-in-4 chances to make the playoffs.

Here are their latest breakdowns for the Bills entering their Week 10 game against the Saints:

Odds to make the playoffs

NYT: 24 percent (last week: 44 percent).
FiveThirtyEight: 17 percent (last week: 36 percent).
Betlab Sports: 16 percent (last week: 34.37 percent).

Playoff outlook: The Bills are still tied for a wild-card spot despite terrible slide

Odds to win the division

NYT: Less than 1 percent (last week: 10 percent).
FiveThirtyEight: 1 percent (last week: 4 percent).
Betlab Sports: 0.5 percent (last week: 3.77 percent).

Odds to win the Super Bowl

FiveThirtyEight: Less than 1 percent (last week: same).
Betlab Sports: 0.1 percent (last week: 0.22 percent).

Five things to know about the Kansas City Chiefs, the Bills' Week 12 opponent

The Eagles (9-1), Patriots (8-2) and Steelers (8-2) have the highest playoff chances, scoring 99 percent or better on each site.

The New York Times' simulators, which are interactive, say a win this week against the Chiefs would put the Bills' playoff odds back into the high 30s.

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