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Playoff probability index, Week Eight: Bills continue to hover under 50 percent

The Bills improved to 4-2 with a comeback win against the Buccaneers and would earn a wild-card spot if the season ended today. Of course, they were 4-2 last year and we know how that ended.

What are the Bills' playoff chances looking like? Playoff simulations from The New York Times and the betting site betlabsports.com give the Bills just under 50 percent chances to end the drought. Football Outsiders, meanwhile, is much higher on the Bills, giving them a 64.2 percent chance at the playoffs because its simulations think the Bills have a better chance at beating the Patriots to win the division than other sites.

Here are their latest breakdowns for the Bills entering their Week Eight game against the Raiders:

Odds to make the playoffs

NYT: 46 percent.
Betlab Sports: 43.09 percent.
Football Outsiders: 64.2 percent.

Odds to win the division

NYT: 25 percent.
Betlab Sports: 14.52 percent.
Football Outsiders: 39.4 percent.

Odds to win the Super Bowl

Betlab Sports: 1.07 percent.
Football Outsiders: 2.5 percent.

The Eagles and Steelers have the highest playoff chances in their respective divisions, above 90 percent on each site.

The New York Times' simulators, which are interactive, say this week's game is a big one for the Bills – an AFC win over the Raiders would improve their playoff chances to 58 percent, while a loss would drop them to 33 percent.

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